给诸位看这个，是想谈谈我的两位老师 I show this because I wanna tell you a story about two teachers I had.
一个我不是很喜欢 而另一个则是我的偶像 One that I didn't Iike that much, the other who is a real hero to me.
我有个中学老师，教地理的 I had a grade school teacher who taught geography
在黑板前挂了一幅地图 by pulling a map of the world down in front of the blackboard.
我读六年级的同学举手提问 I had a classmate in the sixth grade who raised his hand
然后指了指南美洲的东海岸线 and he pointed to the outline of the east coast of South America
又指了指非洲的西海岸线 and he pointed to the west coast of Africa
问道：「这两个能拼到一起吗？」 and he asked, "Did they ever fit together?"
老师回答： And the teacher said
「当然不行，这是我听过最荒谬的事」 "Of course not. That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard."
结果这个学生后来吸毒，一事无成 That student went on to become a drug addict and a ne'er-do-well.
老师呢，则当了现任政府的科学顾问 The teacher went on to become science advisor
老师呢，则当了现任政府的科学顾问 in the current administration.
不过那个老师代表了 But, you know, the teacher was actually reflecting
当时对于这个问题的科学定义： the conclusion of the scientific establishment of that time.
「陆地太庞大，很显然不会动」 Continents are so big, obviously they don't move.
事实上，以我们现在的认识 它们的确移动过 But, actually, as we now know, they did move.
它们彼此分离开来 They moved apart from one another.
不过曾有一段时间 却真的拼在一起 But at one time they did, in fact, fit together.
这个假说反映了一个问题 But that assumption was a problem.
引出了一个著名的真理： It reflected the well-known wisdom
「让我们陷入困境的不是无知」 that what gets us into trouble is not what we don't know
「而是看似正确的谬误论断」（马克.吐温） it's what we know for sure that just ain't so.
此一真理有很重要的意义 This is actually an important point, believe it or not
因为在现今的大众中 because there is another such assumption
就充斥着关于全球变暖的谬论 that a lot of people have in their minds right now about global warming
就充斥着关于全球变暖的谬论 that just ain't so.
比如：地球太大了 The assumption is something like this. The Earth is so big
我们不会对地球的环境 we can't possibly have any lasting harmful impact
造成不可弥补的破坏 on the Earth's environment.
也许过去，这样的说法还行得通 现在则是大错特错 And maybe that was true at one time, but it's not anymore.
理由之一 And one of the reasons it's not true anymore
地球生态圈最脆弱的部分 is that the most vulnerable part of the Earth's ecological system
就是大气层 is the atmosphere.
因为它太薄了 Vulnerable because it's so thin.
我过世的朋友Carl Sagan曾经说 My friend, the late Carl Sagan, used to say
拿一个大号的、表面涂了油漆的地球仪 "If you had a big globe with a coat of varnish on it
那层油漆和地球仪的比例 "the thickness of that varnish relative to that globe
就是大气层和地球的比例 "is pretty much the same
就是大气层和地球的比例 "as the thickness of the Earth's atmosphere
就是大气层和地球的比例 "compared to the Earth itself."
它是如此的薄 And it's thin enough
以至于我们能改变其组成成分 that we are capable of changing its composition.
这就是全球变暖的基本科学依据 That brings up the basic science of global warming.
这个我无需赘言 各位已经很清楚了 And I'm not gonna spend a lot of time on this because you know it well.
太阳射线以光的形式照向地球 The sun's radiation comes in in the form of light waves
使之升温 and that heats up the Earth.
一部分被地球吸收用于升温 And then some of the radiation that is absorbed and warms the Earth
然后以红外线的方式 is reradiated back into space
反过来向宇宙辐射 in the form of infrared radiation.
有的红外线遭到大气层阻挡 And some of the outgoing infrared radiation is trapped
得以保留下来 by this layer of atmosphere and held inside the atmosphere.
这很有用，使地球得以保持一定温度 And that's a good thing because it keeps the temperature of the Earth
这很有用，使地球得以保持一定温度
within certain boundaries
以适宜生命居住 keeps it relatively constant and livable.
问题是各种各样的污染物 But the problem is this thin layer of atmosphere is being thickened
增加了这层大气的厚度 by all of the global warming pollution that's being put up there.
大气厚度增加 And what that does is it thickens this layer of atmosphere
于是更多的射线受到阻挡 more of the outgoing infrared is trapped.
引起世界各地温度升高 这就是全球变暖 And so the atmosphere heats up worldwide. That's global warming.
这是传统的说法 Now, that's the traditional explanation.
你可能奇怪 为什么冰淇淋没了 You're probably wondering why your ice cream went away.
小苏茜，我们的敌人不是外国侵略者 Well, Susie, the culprit isn't foreigners.
而是全球变暖 It's global warming.
全球…… 对 -Global... -Yeah.
给你介绍「阳光先生」 Meet Mr. Sunbeam.
他从太阳大老远来到地球 He comes all the way from the sun to visit Earth.
地球你好啊，就是来打个招呼 照亮你的一天 Hello, Earth. Just popping in to brighten your day.
现在我该回去了 And now I'll be on my way.
慢着！阳光 Not so fast, Sunbeam.
我们是温室气体 你哪也别想去 We're greenhouse gases. You ain't going nowhere.
啊！好痛！ Oh, God, it hurts.
很快，地球外就围满了阳光先生 Pretty soon, Earth is chock-full of Sunbeams.
他们腐烂的尸体加热了我们的大气 Their rotting corpses heating our atmosphere.
我们怎么才能去掉温室气体呢？ How do we get rid of the greenhouse grasses?
很幸运地，我们伟大的政治家们 Fortunately, our handsomest politicians
想到了一条便捷的应急措施 来对抗全球变暖 came up with a cheap, last-minute way to combat global warming.
从2063年起 Ever since 2063
我们不停地向大洋丢进一个巨型冰块 we simply drop a giant ice cube into the ocean every now and then.
就像老爸每天早上往酒里加冰块 Just like Daddy puts in his drink every morning.
然后开始发酒疯 And then he gets mad.
当然了，温室气体还在不断增多 Of course, since the greenhouse gases are still building up
就需要越来越多的冰块 it takes more and more ice each time.
这样就一劳永逸地解决了这个问题 Thus, solving the problem once and for all.
可是…… 一劳永逸！ -But... -Once and for all!
我是从这幅图开始 This is the image that started me
关注这个问题 in my interest in this issue.
那时我还在读大学 And I saw it when I was a college student
我有一个教授叫Roger Revelle because I had a professor named Roger Revelle
他是第一个提出 测量大气二氧化碳含量的人 who was the first person to propose measuring carbon dioxide
他是第一个提出 测量大气二氧化碳含量的人
in the Earth's atmosphere.
他在刚刚发现一些端倪的时候 He saw where the story was going
就弄清楚了来龙去脉 after the first few chapters.
经过开始几年的数据统计 After the first few years of data
他的直觉就告诉他会得到什么结果 he intuited what it meant
他的直觉就告诉他会得到什么结果
for what was yet to come.
他们1957年设计了实验 They designed the experiment in 1 957.
他雇了Charles David Keeling He hired Charles David Keeling
此人工作可靠精确 who was very faithful and precise
为测量工作投入了十几年的时间 in making these measurements for decades.
他们每天都放出气象气球 They started sending these weather balloons up every day
地点选在太平洋中部 and they chose the middle of the Pacific
因为这里最远离人烟 because it was the area that was most remote.
他是个一丝不苟的科学家 And he was a very hard-nosed scientist.
十分看重精确的数据 He really emphasized the hard data.
对我来说是 那是一段珍贵的时期 It was a wonderful time for me
因为同大多年轻人一样 because, like a lot of young people
刚接触到「知识革新」 I came into contact with intellectual ferment
我产生出过去做梦都没想到的 ideas that I'd never considered
无数新想法 in my wildest dreams before.
当他在课堂上 And he showed our class
向我们展示头几年的统计结果 the results of his measurements after only a few years.
我震惊了 It was startling to me.
他自己也很震惊 Now he was startled
同时清楚地向学生们 and made it clear to our class
阐述了这一发现的重大意义 what he felt the significance of it was.
那时我像海绵一样 吸收着这些新鲜观点 And I just soaked it up like a sponge.
他将人类文明的种种变化 He drew the connections
他将人类文明的种种变化
between the larger changes in our civilization
与这个大气成分的观测图结合起来 and this pattern that was now visible
与这个大气成分的观测图结合起来
in the atmosphere of the entire planet.
他又指出如果放任下去 And then he projected into the future where this was headed
曲线在未来会怎样发展 unless we made some adjustments.
一切都清清楚楚 And it was just as clear as day.
到8、9年以后 After the first seven, eight, nine years
你可以看到曲线在上升 you could see the pattern that was developing.
我问了一个问题 But I asked a question.
为什么每年都会上下起伏呢？ Why is it that it goes up and down once each year?
他解释道，如果你观察地球的陆地分布 And he explained that if you look at the land mass of the Earth
会发现南半球只有很少一部分 very little of it is south of the equator.
而大部分陆地都集中在北半球 The vast majority of it is north of the equator
大部分植被也集中在北半球 and most of the vegetation is north of the equator.
所以当北半球斜向太阳 And so, when the Northern Hemisphere is tilted toward the sun
也就是我们的春季和夏季 as it is in our spring and summer
树木发芽长叶，吸入二氧化碳 the leaves come out and they breathe in carbon dioxide
大气中二氧化碳含量降低 and the amount in the atmosphere goes down.
而当北半球远离太阳时 But when the Northern Hemisphere is tilted away from the sun
也就是我们的秋季和冬季 as it is in our fall and winter
叶子落下，释放出二氧化碳 the leaves fall and exhale carbon dioxide
大气中二氧化碳含量又上升了 and the amount in the atmosphere goes back up again.
所以看上去就像整个地球 And so, it's as if the entire Earth
每年呼吸一次 once each year breathes in and out.
我们从1958年开始测量二氧化碳含量 So we started measuring carbon dioxide in 1 958.
可以看到 And you can see
到了60年代中期 当他展示这幅图片的时候 that by the middle '60s, when he showed my class this image
曲线已经开始往上走 it was already clear that it was going up.
我出于对恩师的敬重 追随他的实验 I respected him and learned from him so much, I followed this.
当我70年代进入国会的时候 And when I went to the Congress in the middle 1970s
我参与组织了首次全球变暖的听证会 I helped to organize the first hearings on global warming
邀请我的教授，作为第一轮的证人 and asked my professor to come and be the leadoff witness.
我以为能产生很大影响 And I thought that would have such a big impact
好早日着手解决这一危机 可惜没能如愿 we'd be on the way to solving this problem, but it didn't work that way.
但我坚持举办听证会 1984年我进入参议院 But I kept having hearings. And in 1 984 I went to the Senate
在这一问题上投入了大量精力 and really dug deeply into this issue
举办了科学研讨会以及相关讨论 with science roundtables and the like.
关于这个我曾写过一本书 然后于1988年参加总统竞选 I wrote a book about it, ran for President in 1 988
部分原因也是为了引起公众 在这个问题上的重视 partly to try to gain some visibility for that issue.
1992年进入白宫 我们通过了一项二氧化碳排放税 And in 1 992 went to the White House. We passed a version of a carbon tax
以及其它一些措施来控制危机 and some other measures to try to address this.
1997到参加京都议定书的谈判 Went to Kyoto in 1 997 to help get a treaty
不过引起了激烈的争论 至少在美国是这样 that's so controversial, in the US at least.
2000年 In 2000
我的竞争对手开始管制二氧化碳 my opponent pledged to regulate CO2 and then...
可惜没有坚持下去 That was not a pledge that was kept.
不过重点在于 But the point of this is
整体上可以看出 all this time you can see
这么多年来 what I have seen all these years.
曲线都在无情地爬升 It just keeps going up. It is relentless.
而现实世界中我们也能找到印证 And now we're beginning to see the impact in the real world.
这是30多年前的吉力马札罗山 This is Mount Kilimanjaro more than 30 years ago
这是近照 and more recently.
我的朋友刚从吉力马札罗山回来 And a friend of mine just came back from Kilimanjaro
带来一张几个月前拍摄的图片 with a picture he took a couple of months ago.
我的另一个研究冰川的朋友 Lonnie Thompson Another friend, Lonnie Thompson, studies glaciers.
这是Lonnie和这个 「巨大冰川」的最后一角 Here's Lonnie with a last sliver of one of the once mighty glaciers.
10年内，吉力马札罗山上 将不会再有冰雪 Within the decade there will be no more snows of Kilimanjaro.
这是冰河国家公园 This is happening in Glacier National Park.
我曾于1998年同女儿登上山顶 I climbed to the top of this in 1998 with one of my daughters.
15年内，这里的冰川将成为历史 Within 15 years, this will be the park formerly known as Glacier.
这是哥伦比亚冰川逐年的变化 Here is what's been happening year by year to the Columbia Glacier.
每一年它都在缩小 It just retreats every single year.
真是可惜，这些冰川都如此美丽 And it's a shame 'cause these glaciers are so beautiful.
而那些前去观赏的人们 But those who go up to see them
现在只会看到这样的场面 日复一日…… here's what they're seeing every day, now.
[ 尼泊尔 AX010冰川 ] 喜马拉雅山脉，就面对着严峻的问题 In the Himalayas there's a particular problem
因为占世界40%的人口 because 40% of all the people in the world
依靠河流和泉水提供饮用水 get their drinking water from rivers and spring systems
而它们一半以上都是 冰川融化而来 that are fed more than half by the melt water
而它们一半以上都是 冰川融化而来
coming off the glaciers.
接下来的半个世纪里 这40%的人口 And within this next half century those 40% of the people on Earth
将面对严重的水源匮乏 are gonna face a very serious shortage
原因就是冰川减少 because of this melting.
在意大利，阿尔卑斯山脉 Italy, the Italian Alps.
这是今日的景象 Same sight today.
[ 瑞士Tshierva冰川 ] 一张瑞士过去的明信片 An old postcard from Switzerland.
[ 瑞士Rhone冰川 ] 整个阿尔卑斯山脉，都是一样的景象 Throughout the Alps, we're seeing the same story.
南美也是一样的场景 It's also true in South America.
这是15年前的秘鲁 This is Peru 1 5 years ago.
这是今日的模样 And the same glacier today.
20年前的阿根廷 和今日的景象 This is Argentina 20 years ago. Same glacier today.
75年前，南美底端的巴塔哥尼亚高原 Seventy-five years ago in Patagonia on the tip of South America.
曾经一望无际的冰雪 如今荡然无存 This vast expanse of ice is now gone.
种种的现象 包含了一个重要的信息 There's a message in this.
这是全球性的 It is worldwide.
是冰川在向我们倾诉 And the ice has stories to tell us.
我的朋友Lonnie Thompson 用空心钻研究冰层 My friend, Lonnie Thompson, digs core drills in the ice.
他们往下钻 They dig down
然后将钻头采到的冰芯拿去研究 and they bring the core drills back up and they look at the ice
然后将钻头采到的冰芯拿去研究
and they study it.
积雪会封存一些 包含当时大气成分的气泡 When the snow falls, it traps little bubbles of atmosphere
他们能测量出 and they can go in and measure
那年大气的二氧化碳含量 how much CO2 was in the atmosphere the year that that snow fell.
有趣的是 What's even more interesting, I think, is
通过测量氧的各个同位素 they can measure the different isotopes of oxygen
建立一个精确的温度参照 and figure out a very precise thermometer
可以测得当气泡被积雪封存时的 and tell you what the temperature was
当年的大气温度 the year that that bubble was trapped in the snow as it fell.
我在南极见过这种冰芯 When I was in Antarctica, I saw cores like this.
一个家伙看着它，说： And a guy looked at it. He said
「这一年美国国会通过了《空气清净法》」 "Right here is where the US Congress passed the Clean Air Act."
我都不敢相信 And I couldn't believe it.
不过就算用肉眼也能辨别出 But you can see the difference with the naked eye.
法令通过几年后 Just a couple of years after that law was passed
对应的冰芯有明显的界限 it's very clearly distinguishable.
他们可以倒着按年份数过去 They can count back year by year
就像看林人数树木的年轮一样 the same way a forester reads tree rings.
年复一年的冰冻和消融 And you can see each annual layer from the melting and re-freezing
使他们可以倒推到千年以前 so they can go back in a lot of these mountain glaciers 1,000 years.
他们建立了一个温度表 And they constructed a thermometer of the temperature.
蓝色代表低温，红色是高温 The blue is cold and the red is warm.
我拿出这幅图有几个原因 Now, I show this for a couple of reasons.
第一，那些所谓的「怀疑论者」会说： Number one, the so-called skeptics will sometimes say
「噢，这不过是循环现象」 "Oh, this whole thing, this is a cyclical phenomenon.
「中世纪还不是有比较温暖的时期」 "There was a medieval warming period, after all."
没错，这不就有一个 Well, yeah, there was. There it is, right there.
这还有两个 There are two others.
可是跟现在的情况相比 But compared to what's going on now
完全就是微不足道 there's just no comparison.
现在回头看1000年来的温度变化 So if you look at 1,000 years' worth of temperature
与1000年来二氧化碳的变化联系起来 and compare it to 1,000 years of CO2
你可以看到两者十分吻合 you can see how closely they fit together.
1000年来冰川中二氧化碳的含量 Now, 1,000 years of CO2 in the mountain glaciers
这是一点 that's one thing.
在南极洲，研究人员 可以回溯到65万年以前 But in Antarctica, they can go back 650,000 years.
顺便提一句 这是第一次 This incidentally is the first time
向少数科学家以外的公众 展示这幅图片 anybody outside of a small group of scientists has seen this image.
这是现代 This is the present day era
这是冰河时代 and that's the last ice age.
然后曲线上升 我们现在是在65万年的历史中 Then it goes up. We're going back in time now 650,000 years.
这是两个冰河时代间的温暖时期 That's the period of warming between the last two ice ages.
这是第二、第三个冰河时代 That's the second and third ice age back.
四、五、六…… Fourth, fifth, sixth
第七次冰河时代 and seventh ice age back.
很重要的一点是 Now, an important point.
在整个65万年中 In all of this time, 650,000 years
二氧化碳的含量 the CO2 level has never gone above
从没有超过300ppm（百万分之一） 300 parts per million.
我说过，他们还测量了温度 Now, as I said, they can also measure temperature.
这是地球上温度的变化 Here's what the temperature has been on our Earth.
现在你可能会产生这样的想法…… Now, one thing that kind of jumps out at you is...
这样说，我那位六年级的同学 Well, let me put it this way. If my classmate from the sixth grade
谈论非洲和南美洲那位 要是今天也来了 that talked about Africa and South America were here
他会问：「它们能拼到一起么？」 he would say, "Did they ever fit together?"
「我听过最荒谬的事」 "Most ridiculous thing I've ever heard."
不过它们的确吻合 But they did, of course.
而之间的联系十分复杂 And the relationship is actually very complicated.
不过有一个联系 But there is one relationship that is far more powerful
远高过其余的 than all the others and it is this.
二氧化碳越多，气温就越高 When there is more carbon dioxide, the temperature gets warmer
因为它会将更多 来自太阳的热量困在地表 because it traps more heat from the sun inside.
一部分美国城市 包括那些现代化大城市 In the parts of the United States that contain the modern cities
克利夫兰、底特律、纽约 这些北部城市 of Cleveland, Detroit, New York, in the northern tier
这里展示了好天气 this is the difference between a nice day
和地面积雪1英里深的日子 and having a mile of ice over your head.
将这一点牢记在心里 Keep that in mind when you look at this fact.
二氧化碳含量 Carbon dioxide
从未超过300 having never gone above 300 parts per million
这里是现在的二氧化碳含量 here is where CO2 is now.
远超过我们所能统计到的历史水平 Way above where it's ever been
远超过我们所能统计到的历史水平
as far back as this record will measure.
如果你允许的话 我还想强调一下这点 Now, if you'll bear with me, I wanna really emphasize this point.
这里的工作人员 The crew here
教会我使用这台装置 has tried to teach me how to use this contraption here.
若我没错手杀了自己，应可…… So, if I don't kill myself, I'll...
已经到了这里 It's already right here.
看看这已经把自然循环抛得老远 Look how far above the natural cycle this is
这的确是不争的事实 and we've done that.
不过各位请注意 在未来50年 But, ladies and gentlemen, in the next 50 years
真的，50年以内 really, in less than 50 years
曲线还会继续爬升 it's gonna continue to go up.
在座的小孩们 等你们到我这年纪 When some of these children who are here are my age
这将是不到50年后的景象 here is what it's going to be in less than 50 years.
已经超出图表的范围了 You've heard of off the charts.
50年内，就会到这里 Within less than 50 years, it'll be here.
这里没有刻意设计任何一个数据 There's not a single fact or date or number
所有的结果都毫无争议 that's been used to make this up that's in any controversy.
等那些「怀疑论者」看到这里 恐怕会说： The so-called skeptics look at this and they say
「这又如何？看起来还好嘛」 "So? That seems perfectly okay."
嗯…… Well
我再重申一遍，在温度曲线上 again, if on the temperature side
要是这么多代表1英里深的积雪 if this much on the cold side is a mile of ice over our heads
上升到那么高，会是怎样的景象？ what would that much on the warm side be?
所以说这不是一个政治问题 Ultimately this is really not a political issue
而是道德问题 so much as a moral issue.
要是你我任凭其发生 If we allow that to happen
就极缺德 it is deeply unethical.
对我们的民主、自治 我深信不疑 I had such faith in our democratic system
对我们的民主、自治 我深信不疑
our self-government.
我曾坚信 I actually thought and believed
这些事实会激起巨大的变化 that the story would be compelling enough to cause a real sea change
从国会对这一现象的反应 in the way the Congress reacted to that issue.
我以为大众也会感到震惊 I thought they would be startled, too.
可惜没有 And they weren't.
种种努力 The struggles
还有毫无胜利可言的胜利 the victories that aren't really victories, the defeats that aren't really defeats.
他们有意强调 They can serve to magnify the significance
微不足道的一点成就 of some trivial step forward
夸大一些严重退步的重要性 exaggerate the seeming importance
of some massive setback.
1989年4月3日 April 3, 1 989.
[ 运动场外的车祸 ] [ 参议员高尔6岁之子 生命垂危] 儿子挣脱我的手 My son pulled loose from my hand
[ 运动场外的车祸 ] [ 参议员高尔6岁之子 生命垂危] 儿子挣脱我的手
[ 运动场外的车祸 ] [ 参议员高尔6岁之子 生命垂危] 在街上与好友追逐玩耍 and chased his friend across the street.
[ 急症室 ] 那年他六岁 He was six years old.
要靠机器来维持呼吸 The machine was breathing for him.
生命危在旦夕 We were possibly going to lose him.
最后他终于能自己呼吸 He finally took a breath.
我们在医院呆了一个月 We stayed in the hospital for a month.
感觉就像 It was almost as if
看着日历，然后长吁一口气 you could look at that calendar and just go...
所有的一切都烟消云散 And everything just flew off.
变得毫无意义 Seemed trivial, insignificant.
他是那么的勇敢 He was so brave. He was such...
是个勇敢的小家伙 He was such a brave guy.
这件事颠覆了我的世界 It just turned my whole world upside down
将所有的一切抛于脑后 and then shook it until everything fell out.
我重新认识了生命的意义 一切也都随之改变 My way of being in the world, it just changed everything for me.
我到底怎么度过自己的一生？ How should I spend my time on this Earth?
我一头栽进去 I really dug in
试图更深入地了解这一切 trying to learn about it much more deeply.
我去过南极洲 I went to Antarctica.
到达过南极、北极、亚马逊雨林 Went to the South Pole, the North Pole, the Amazon.
到各地向科学家请教 Went to places where scientists could help me understand
那些过去我没有深究的问题 parts of the issue that
那些过去我没有深究的问题
I didn't really understand in depth.
险些失去生命中最重要的人 The possibility of losing what was most precious to me.
让我拥有了一种能力 I gained an ability
过去没有的能力 that maybe I didn't have before.
我感受到 But when I felt it
发现我们真的可能失去它们 I felt that we could really lose it
那些现在习以为常的东西 我们的后代甚至没有机会看到 that what we take for granted might not be here for our children.
这些是内战以来记录的大气温度 These are actual measurements of atmospheric temperatures
这些是内战以来记录的大气温度
since our Civil War.
单独看一年的数据 感觉是在下降 In any given year, it might look like it's going down
但总的趋势十分明显 but the overall trend is extremely clear.
到了近几年 And in recent years
曲线不断攀升 it's uninterrupted and it is intensifying.
回顾气温记录里 最热的10年 In fact, if you look at the 1 0 hottest years ever measured
回顾气温记录里 最热的10年
in this atmospheric record
全部集中在过去的14年里 they've all occurred in the last 1 4 years.
其中之最就是2005年 And the hottest of all was 2005.
热浪的威力大家已经领教过了 We have already seen some of the heat waves
这些科学家常放在嘴边的说法 that are similar to what scientists are saying
会越来越频繁地在现实中的出现 are gonna be a lot more common.
[ 温度异常 ] 几年前欧洲的热浪 Couple of years ago in Europe they had that massive heat wave
[ 2003年热浪死亡人数 ] 夺走了35000人的生命 that killed 35,000 people.
印度那边没有得到多少关注 India didn't get as much attention
但是那一年印度气温高达122度 but the same year the temperature there went
但是那一年印度气温高达122度
to 1 22 degrees Fahrenheit.
去年美国西部的夏天 This past summer in the American West
很多城市都创下气温历史新高 there were a lot of cities that broke all-time records for high temperatures
甚至连续数日气温高达100度 and number of consecutive days with a 1 00-degree temperature or more.
西部有200个城镇创下气温新高 Two hundred cities and towns in the west set all-time records.
而东部同样如此 And in the east there were a lot of cities that did the same thing.
这里面也包括纽奥良 Including, incidentally, New Orleans.
气温升高已经是全球性的 So the temperature increases are taking place all over the world
也包括海洋 including in the oceans.
这是正常的海洋温度变化 This is the natural range of variability for temperature in the oceans.
人们看了会说：「这很正常嘛」 You know, people say, "Oh, it's just natural.
「有起有落，不用担心」 "It goes up and down, so don't worry about it."
这是人们预测 过去60年里的变化 This is the range that would be expected over the last 60 years
不过研究全球变暖的科学家 but the scientists who specialize in global warming have computer models
早就通过计算机建模的方式 预言了曲线的上升 that long ago predicted this range of temperature increase.
我现在要向各位展示 Now I'm gonna show you, recently released
最新的海洋温度统计结果 the actual ocean temperatures.
海洋升温，势必造成更强的风暴 And, of course, when the oceans get warmer, that causes stronger storms.
过去几年里 We have seen in the last couple of years
我们见识过许多飓风 a lot of big hurricanes.
飓风「珍妮」、 「弗朗西斯」、「伊凡」…… Hurricane Jeanne and Frances and Ivan were among them.
那一年除了一系列的飓风 And the same year that we had that string of big hurricanes
美国的龙卷风也创下纪录 we also set an all-time record for tornadoes in the United States.
我们的媒体没有关注日本 Japan again didn't get as much attention in our news media
他们的台风记录同样是历年之最 but they set an all-time record for typhoons.
以前的记录是7个 Previous record was seven.
这里是2004年的10个台风 Here are all 1 0 of the ones they had in 2004.
我们应该重写教科书 The science textbooks have had to be rewritten
他们说在南大西洋 不可能出现飓风 because they say that it's impossible to have a hurricane in the South Atlantic.
第一个飓风就在同一年袭击了巴西 But the same year the first one ever hit Brazil.
2005年的夏天也同样惊人 Summer of 2005 has been one for the books.
首先是「埃米莉」席卷尤卡坦半岛 The first one was Emily that socked into Yucatan.
然后是「丹尼斯」造成大面积破坏 Then Hurricane Dennis came along and it did a lot of damage
石油工业也受到影响 including to the oil industry.
世上最大的油井 在「丹尼斯」过后的景象 This is the largest oil platform in the world after Dennis went through.
这个油井被吹到了桥上 This one was driven into the bridge at Mobile.
然后是「卡翠娜」 And then, of course, came Katrina.
值得注意的是 袭击佛罗里达时，它只是一级风暴 It's worth remembering that when it hit Florida, it was a Category One.
却造成大量人身伤亡和财产损失 But it killed a lot of people and caused billions of dollars' worth of damage.
然后呢？ And then what happened?
在袭击纽奥良前 Before it hit New Orleans
它经过了高温的洋面 it went over warmer waters.
水温升高 As the water temperature increases
风力也不断增强 the wind velocity increases
湿度随之增大 and the moisture content increases.
各位可以看到「卡翠娜」 从佛罗里达出发 And you'll see Hurricane Katrina form over Florida.
在高温洋面形成漩涡 And then as it comes into the gulf over that warm water
不断地吸收能量 变得越来越强 it picks up that energy and gets stronger and stronger and stronger.
看看那个风眼 Look at that hurricane's eye.
随之而来的后果是极其可怕的 And, of course, the consequences were so horrendous
简直不能用语言来形容 there are no words to describe it.
各方报导和电话让人心碎 Yeah, we're getting reports and calls that are just breaking my heart.
人们说： 「我爬到楼顶，已经无处落脚」 From people saying, "I've been in my attic. I can't take it anymore.
「水淹到了脖子，我就快撑不住了」 "The water is up to my neck. I don't think I can hold out. "
这样的场景时时刻刻都在发生 And that's happening as we speak.
我们提醒人们重视 「17街泄水道」问题的严重性 We told everybody the importance of the 1 7th Street Canal issue.
我们说：「快来管一管吧」 We said, "Please, please, take care of this.
「无论做什么，快来人吧」 "We don't care what you do. Figure it out. "
美国从没见识过这般景象 Something new for America.
到底为什么会发生这样的惨剧？ But how in God's name could that happen here?
之前就有警报说飓风会增强 There had been warnings that hurricanes would get stronger.
警告说这个飓风 There were warnings that this hurricane
会吹倒堤坝 days before it hit, would breach the levees
会造成我们后来经历的灾难 would cause the kind of damage that it ultimately did cause.
而我们作为公众 And one question we as a people need to decide
应该决定如何面对 is how we react when we hear warnings
这些来自顶尖科学家们的警告 from the leading scientists in the world.
上世纪30年代有另一个风暴 There was another storm in the 1 930s of a different kind.
这个空前的风暴席卷了欧洲 A horrible, unprecedented storm in continental Europe
丘吉尔当时就曾警告英国人民 and Winston Churchill warned the people of England
这个风暴不同以往 that it was different from anything that had ever happened before
大家应该做好准备 and they had to get ready for it.
很多人都不放在心上 And a lot of people did not want to believe it.
他对于人们的优柔寡断 失去了耐心 And he got real impatient with all the dithering.
然后说了这段话 And he said this
「继续拖延、折衷和自我安慰式的 权宜之计的时代已经接近尾声」
「取而代之 我们将开始生活于其后果之中」
过去几代人，几个世纪里 埋下的祸根 Making mistakes in generations and centuries past
会给今天的我们留下恶果 would have consequences that we could overcome.
我们不能重蹈覆辙 We don't have that luxury anymore.
也由不得我们选择 We didn't ask for it
也由不得我们选择
but here it is.
公众投票艾尔.高尔获胜 Al Gore is the winner of the national popular vote.
但是佛罗里达将决定大选的结果 But the state of Florida, whomever wins there wins the White House.
佛罗里达州 认定艾尔.高尔阵营获胜…… We call Florida, in the Al Gore column...
公告，佛罗里达重新回到未决阵营 Bulletin: Florida pulled back into the undecided column.
乔治.布什当选美国总统…… George Bush is the president elect of the United States. He is...
佛罗里达选了布什 布什当选 Florida goes Bush. The presidency is Bush. That's it.
今天凌晨2:18，我们计划…… And at 2:1 8 this morning, we project...
现在官方宣称佛罗里达票选结果势均力敌 All right, we're officially saying that Florida is too close to call.
虽然我强烈反对法庭的裁决 While I strongly disagree with the court's decision
但我愿意接受 I accept it.
接受这一最终决定 I accept the finality of this outcome.
……庄严宣誓…… ...do solemnly swear...
我，乔治.沃克.布什 庄严宣誓…… I, George Walker Bush, do solemnly swear...
……将忠诚笃行总统权力…… ... that I will faithfully execute the Office of President...
真的是很大的打击 Well, that was a hard blow, but...
但又能怎么样呢？ What do you do? You...
我已经尽力了 You make the best of it.
已经引起了足够的关注 It brought into clear focus
这么多年来 the mission that I had been pursuing
我一直履行自己的使命 for all these years, and
于是我又开始做演讲 I started giving the slide show again.
全球变暖一个常常被忽视的效应 One often unnoticed effect of global warming
就是降水量的增加 is it causes more precipitation
它更多的是以风暴的形式体现出来 but more of it coming in one-time big storm events.
海洋的蒸发出大量湿气 Because the evaporation off the oceans puts all the moisture up there
风暴聚积到一定程度 就会以降雨的形式落下 when storm conditions trigger the downpour, more of it falls down.
保险业已经注意到这一点 The insurance industry has actually noticed this.
他们的赔付金正逐年增加 Their recovered losses are going up.
看到气候灾害造成的损失了吗？ You see the damage from these severe weather events?
这里还没有包括2005年的统计数字 And 2005 is not even on this yet.
如果放进来，会远超出这张表 When it does, it'll be off that chart.
[ 洪水数量记录 ] 欧洲同我们一样 Europe has just had a year very similar to the one we've had
大自然像发了疯一样 where they say nature's been going crazy.
各种各样重大灾难 All kinds of unusual catastrophes
简直如同《启示录》中描写的 世界末日一般 like a nature hike through the Book of Revelations.
亚洲的洪水 Flooding in Asia.
去年七月在印度的孟买 Mumbai, India this past July.
24小时降水达到37英吋 Thirty-seven inches of rain in 24 hours.
是印度历史上 By far, the largest downpour
城市降水最高纪录 that any city in India has ever received.
中国同样是洪水泛滥 Lot of flooding in China, also.
全球变暖，不但带来了洪水 Global warming, paradoxically, causes not only more flooding
另一方面也带来了干旱 but also more drought.
就在这里洪水泛滥之际 This neighboring province right next door
邻省正遭遇严重干旱 had a severe drought at the same time these areas were flooding.
[ 年降雨趋势图 ] 其中一个原因 One of the reasons for this has to do with the fact
是全球变暖不但增加降雨量 that global warming not only increases precipitation worldwide
还使其重新分布 but it also relocates the precipitation.
请看非洲这里 And focus most of all on this part of Africa
撒哈拉沙漠边缘 just on the edge of the Sahara.
正发生着难以置信的灾难 Unbelievable tragedies have been unfolding there
灾害的起因很多 and there are a lot of reasons for it.
但以达尔福尔和尼日尔为例 But Darfur and Niger are among those tragedies.
当地发生的自然灾害 And one of the factors that has been compounding them
就包括降雨匮乏和严重的旱灾 is the lack of rainfall and the increasing drought.
查德湖，曾经是世界上最大的湖 This is Lake Chad, once one of the largest lakes in the world.
过去十年内逐年干涸 It has dried up over the last few decades to almost nothing
使得问题更加复杂 vastly complicating the other problems that they also have.
第二个原因 The second reason
关于全球变暖的两面性 why this is a paradox.
全球变暖造成海洋蒸发加剧 Global warming creates more evaporation off the oceans
产生云层 to seed the clouds
同时也从陆地蒸发出更多的水分 but it sucks moisture out of the soil.
随着温度增加 Soil evaporation increases dramatically
水分流失越发严重 with higher temperatures.
所以我们国家同样会受到影响 And that has consequences for us in the United States, as well.
这里是迦太基路出口 So this is the Carthage exit.
我十四岁的时候 撞坏了家里的汽车 When I was 1 4 years old, I totaled the family car
就在那儿 right there.
车子开过那个小山包 翻了个身 Went off that shoulder, turned it over.
看到那头黑安格斯牛了？ And see this Black Angus bull?
我们家以前就养安格斯牛 We raised Black Angus.
我父亲曾获得「优秀饲养员」称号 My father was named Breeder of the Month.
他在农场长大 He grew up on a farm.
在当参议员的时候 All through his career in the Senate
还会回来养牛 he continued to come back here and raise cattle.
在田间劳作中向父亲学习 Learning it from your dad on the land
对我来说意义非凡 that's really something special.
我童年的成长经历 有一点特别 My childhood upbringing was a little unusual in the sense that
每年我有八个月呆在华盛顿 I spent eight months of each year in Washington DC
一个小旅馆里 in a small little hotel apartment.
剩下四个月 会在美丽的大农场里度过 And then the other four months were spent here on this big, beautiful farm.
我养过狗 I had a dog here.
还有小马 I had a pony here.
可以打猎 I could shoot my rifle here.
还在小河里畅游 I could go swimming in the river here.
从河里出来 就躺在草地上 Go out and lay down in the grass.
作为一个孩子 As a kid, it took me a while
我花了不少时间 才明白工作和休闲的区别 As a kid, it took me a while
我花了不少时间 才明白工作和休闲的区别
to learn the difference between fun and work.
一方水土养一方人 The places where people live were chosen
一方水土养一方人
because of the climate pattern
世界各地都是如此 that has been pretty much the same on Earth
从11000年前最后一个冰河时代至今 since the end of the last ice age 1 1, 000 years ago.
这个农场也在发生着变化 Here, on this farm, the patterns are changing.
对于一个人来说 也许变化十分缓慢 And it seems gradual in the course of a human lifetime
但是对于这条河来说 but in the course of time, as defined by this river
变化得实在太快了 it's happening very, very quickly.
地球有两大警钟 Two canaries in the coal mine.
第一个是北极 First one is in the Arctic.
这是北冰洋的浮冰 This, of course, is the Arctic Ocean, the floating ice cap.
旁边是格陵兰岛 Greenland, on its side there.
说它是警钟 I say canary in the coal mine
因为北极是世界上 because the Arctic is one of the two regions of the world
两大受全球变暖 影响最大的区域之一 that is experiencing faster impacts
两大受全球变暖 影响最大的区域之一
from global warming.
这是北极最大的冰架 This is the largest ice shelf in the Arctic
沃德.亨特冰架 the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf.
三年前它一分为二 It just cracked in half three years ago.
科学家大为震惊 The scientists were astonished.
这些东倒西歪的树叫「醉树」 These are called drunken trees just going every which way.
不是被风吹的，更不是喝醉了酒 This is not caused by wind damage or alcohol consumption.
它们札根于永冻土上 These trees put their roots down in the permafrost
永冻土融化 and the permafrost is thawing.
他们就变得歪歪倒倒的 And so they just go every which way now.
这栋楼建在永冻土上 This building was built on the permafrost
永冻土融化，建筑随之倒塌 and has collapsed as the permafrost thaws.
这屋的主人不得不放弃家园 This woman's house has had to be abandoned.
而这些运输管道 正遭受严重的破坏 The pipeline is suffering a great deal of structural damage.
顺便说一句，他们在北阿拉斯加 And incidentally, the oil that they want to produce in that protected area
那片受保护的地区开采石油 尽管我不希望他们这样做 in Northern Alaska, which I hope they don't
运输需要依靠卡车进出 they have to depend on trucks to go in and out of there.
而卡车在冻土上行驶 And the trucks go over the frozen ground.
这里展示了阿拉斯加一年里 This shows the number of days that the tundra in Alaska is
冻土可以通行的天数 frozen enough to drive on it.
35年前，一年有225天 Thirty-five years ago, 225 days a year.
现在还不到75天 Now it's below 75 days a year
因为春天提前到来 而秋天越来越迟 because the spring comes earlier and the fall comes later
气温越来越高 and the temperatures just keep on going up.
我来到北极 I went up to the North Pole.
我曾乘坐核潜艇在冰盖下航行 I went under that ice cap in a nuclear submarine
它这样升上冰面 that surfaced through the ice like this.
他们从1957年开始航行 Since they started patrolling in 1957
深入冰下 they have gone under the ice
用雷达向上探测 and measured with their radar looking upwards
来测量冰层厚度 to measure how thick it is
他们只能在某些区域上浮 because they can only surface in areas
这些地区冰层只有3尺半厚 where it's three and a half feet thick or less.
所以做记录需要特别小心 So they have kept a meticulous record
由于这是国家机密 他们不愿公布测量结果 and they wouldn't release it because it was national security.
我前去说服了他们 I went up there in order to persuade them to release it, and they did.
而这就是那份记录 And here's what that record shows.
1970年开始，冰层的宽度和厚度 Starting in 1 970, there was a precipitous drop-off
出现急剧下降 in the amount and extent and thickness of the Arctic ice cap.
40年内减少了40% It has diminished by 40% in 40 years.
目前的两项主要研究表明 And there are now two major studies showing
未来50到70年内 that within the next 50 to 70 years
这里夏季将不再结冰 in summertime it will be completely gone.
你可能会问 「这样有什么不好？」 Now, you might say, "Why is that a problem?"
或者 「为什么北极冰层融化这么快？」 And "How could the Arctic ice cap actually melt so quickly?"
阳光照到冰面 When the sun's rays hit the ice
90%以上会反射回太空 more than 90% of it bounces off right back into space like a mirror.
但若是直射到水里 90%以上被海洋吸收 But when it hits the open ocean, more than 90% of it is absorbed.
于是周围的水域越来越热 And so, as the surrounding water gets warmer
加速了冰层的融化 it speeds up the melting of the ice.
现在北极的冰层就像一面大镜子 Right now, the Arctic ice cap acts like a giant mirror.
90%以上的阳光被反射回去 All the sun's rays bounce off, more than 90%.
保持地球的凉爽 It keeps the Earth cooler.
但等它融化了 But as it melts
广阔的海洋接受太阳的能量 and the open ocean receives that sun's energy instead
90%的阳光被吸收 more than 90% is absorbed.
就会在这里聚集热量 So there is a faster buildup of heat here
从北极，到北冰洋 at the North Pole, in the Arctic Ocean
然后到北极圈乃至整个地球 and the Arctic generally than anywhere else on the planet.
对于北极熊这样 依赖冰雪的动物可不是好事 That's not good for creatures like polar bears who depend on the ice.
最新科学研究表明 A new scientific study shows that
人们首次发现了淹死的北极熊 for the first time they're finding polar bears that have actually drowned
它们漂游超过60英里以寻找冰面 swimming long distances, up to 60 miles, to find the ice.
这是过去从未有过的景象 And they didn't find that before.
这又代表着什么？ But what does it mean to us?
过去的广阔冰层 To look at a vast expanse of open water
如今变成一片汪洋大海 at the top of our world that used to be covered by ice.
我们应该予以关注 We ought to care a lot
因为这会造成全球影响 because it has planetary effects.
地球上的气候 就是大型的热能分配器 The Earth's climate is like a big engine for redistributing heat
分配赤道到两极的热量 from the equator to the poles.
其原理就是海水和风的流动 And it does that by means of ocean currents and wind currents.
科学家说 地球的气候是一个非线性系统 They tell us, the scientists do, that the Earth's climate is a nonlinear system.
这个冠冕堂皇的说法 Just a fancy way they have of saying
不过是说气候不是逐渐变化的 that the changes are not all just gradual.
有的会有突变 Some of them come suddenly, in big jumps.
从全球范围来看 On a worldwide basis, the annual average temperature is
年均气温是58度 about 58 degrees Fahrenheit.
要是按照图中所示 If we have an increase of five degrees
平均增加5度 which is on the low end of the projections
看看地球上会有什么变化 look at how that translates globally.
这代表着赤道上升1度 That means an increase of only one degree at the equator
而在两极会上升12度 but more than 1 2 degrees at the pole.
各种水流和气流 And so all those wind and ocean current patterns
自上个冰河时代形成以来都相对稳定 that have formed since the last ice age and have been relatively stable
如今却变得不稳定起来 they're all up in the air and they change.
其中有一个最让人担心 And one of the ones they're most worried about
人们花了大量时间去研究它 where they've spent a lot of time studying the problem
那就是北大西洋 is in the North Atlantic
在那里湾流遭遇冷空气 where the Gulf Stream comes up and meets the cold winds
冷空气从北极越过格陵兰来到这里 coming off the Arctic over Greenland.
湾流释放的热空气 And that evaporates so that the heat out of the Gulf Stream
由于地球的自转和盛行风向的作用 and the steam is carried over to Western Europe
水蒸气被吹向欧洲西部 by the prevailing winds and the Earth's rotation.
看到整个大洋环流组成一个圈 But isn't it interesting that the whole ocean current system
是不是很有趣？ is all linked together in this loop?
它被称为「海洋运输带」 They call it the ocean conveyor.
红色代表暖流 And the red are the warm surface currents.
其中以湾流最著名 The Gulf Stream is the best known of them.
蓝色代表寒流 But the blue represent the cold currents
反方向运动 running in the opposite direction
我们看不见是因为整个过程都在海底进行 and we don't see them at all because they run along the bottom of the ocean.
在大西洋北部，热量被带走以后 Up in the North Atlantic, after that heat is pulled out
剩下的就是又冷又咸的海水 what's left behind is colder water and saltier water
因为盐不会随着蒸发 because the salt doesn't go anywhere.
这样就使得海水变得又稠又重 And so that makes it denser and heavier.
这样一来 冷却、稠密的海水 And so that cold, dense, heavy water sinks
以每秒500万加仑的速度下沉 at the rate of five billion gallons per second.
将海水送回南边 And then that pulls that current back south.
在上个冰河时代末期 At the end of the last ice age
最后一块冰川从北美洲撤出 as the last glacier was receding from North America
冰融化以后在那里 形成了一个巨大的淡水湖 the ice melted and a giant pool of fresh water
冰融化以后在那里 形成了一个巨大的淡水湖
formed in North America.
北美五大湖就是那个湖的遗迹 And the Great Lakes are the remnants of that huge lake.
有一天 西岸由冰组成的「大坝」决堤了 An ice dam on the eastern border formed and one day it broke.
淡水倾泻而出 And all that fresh water came rushing out
冲出圣劳伦斯河 ripping open the St. Lawrence there
冲淡了那里又咸又稠的冰冷海水 and it diluted the salty, dense, cold water
海水变淡变轻，于是停止下沉 made it fresher and lighter, so it stopped sinking.
循环就此停滞 And that pump shut off.
热量交换终止 And the heat transfer stopped.
欧洲又进入900到1000年的冰河时代 And Europe went back into an ice age for another 900 to 1,000 years.
从我们现在的状态 And the change from conditions like we have here today
转化到冰河时代 to an ice age
仅仅需要十年的时间 took place in perhaps as little as 1 0 years' time.
这就是一个突变 So that's a sudden jump.
这样的情形现在当然不会发生 Now, of course that's not gonna happen again
北美洲没有这样的冰川 because the glaciers of North America are not there, and...
那附近有没有大片的冰层呢？ Is there any other big chunk of ice anywhere near there?
有的 Oh, yeah.
我们等会儿来说它 We'll come back to that one.
我奔走呼吁，各方交涉 It's extremely frustrating to me
却感到无比的沮丧 to communicate over and over again, as clearly as I can.
我们国家就是这一危机 的罪魁祸首 And we are still, by far
我们国家就是这一危机 的罪魁祸首
the worst contributor to the problem.
我环顾四周 And I look around
想看到明显的标志 and look for really meaningful signs
表示我们在寻求改变 that we're about to really change.
却什么也看不到 I don't see it right now.
一些知名科学家称空气污染 A number of very reputable scientists have said that one factor of air pollution
来自腐烂的植物散发的氮氧化合物 is oxides of nitrogen from decaying vegetation.
这也就是大烟山闻名的大雾的由来 This is what causes the haze that gave the big Smoky Mountains their name.
非常感谢 Thank you very much, okay.
这个人是极端的环境主义者 This guy is so far off in the environmental extreme
会造成人心惶惶，大量失业 we'll be up to our neck in owls and out of work for every American.
他是个疯子 This guy is crazy.
就算人类是在造成全球变暖 尽管我们没有 Even if humans were causing global warming, and we are not
这也是对美国的公民 this could be maybe the greatest hoax ever perpetrated
一次最大的欺骗 on the American people.
这完全是意气用事 We're dealing with something that's highly emotional.
如果一个问题 If an issue is not
没能得到当权者的重视 on the tips of their constituents' tongues
他们很容易就可以忽视它 it's easy for them to ignore it.
推辞说「容我们日后商议」 To say, "Well, we'll deal with that tomorrow. "
这种种变化 So the same phenomena of changing all these patterns
也影响着季节变迁 is also affecting the seasons.
这是荷兰的一项研究 Here is a study from the Netherlands.
鸟类迁徙的高峰期 The peak arrival date for migratory birds
25年前是4月25日 25 years ago was April 25th
7月3日雏鸟孵化出壳 and their chicks hatched on June the 3rd.
此时毛虫刚好出来活动 Just at the time when the caterpillars were coming out.
配合得天衣无缝 Nature's plan.
20年的升温 But 20 years of warming later
造成毛虫活跃高峰期提前2周 the caterpillars peaked two weeks earlier
尽管雏鸟试图适应 却无法跟上 and the chicks tried to catch up with it, but they couldn't.
这样就带来了问题 And so, they're in trouble.
现在有无数这样的生态位 And there are millions of ecological niches
正受到全球变暖的影响 that are affected by global warming in just this way.
这是过去100年 瑞士南部结冰的天数 This is the number of days with frost in Southern Switzerland
这是过去100年 瑞士南部结冰的天数
over the last 1 00 years.
正急剧下降 但是请看这个 It has gone down rapidly. But now watch this.
这是入侵的有害物种 This is the number of invasive exotic species
急剧增长，填补增加的生态位 that have rushed in to fill the new ecological niches that are opening up.
在美国有同样的情形 That's happening here in the United States, too.
各位都听说过「松树甲虫」事件 You've heard of the pine beetle problem?
过去，这些松树甲虫会被严冬冻死 Those pine beetles used to be killed by the cold winters
但结冰的天数减少 but there are fewer days of frost
松树于是遭到破坏 and so the pine trees are being devastated.
在阿拉斯加有1400万亩云杉 This is part of 1 4 million acres of spruce trees in Alaska
被皮蠹虫破坏，是一样的现象 that have been killed by bark beetles. The exact same phenomenon.
有的城市得以建立 There are cities that were founded
是因为高于蚊子活跃区 because they were just above the mosquito line.
如奈洛比、哈拉雷…… 以及其它一些城市 Nairobi is one, Harare is another. There are plenty of others.
如今随着温度升高 蚊子飞到更高的地方 Now the mosquitoes, with warming, are climbing to higher altitudes.
一些令人不安的传染病 There are a lot of vectors for infectious diseases that are worrisome to us
也传播得越来越广 that are also expanding their range.
除了蚊子 还有其余这些 Not only mosquitoes, but all of these others as well.
在过去的25年里 And we've had 30 so-called new diseases
又发现了30种所谓的「新疾病」 that have emerged just in the last quarter century.
比如造成了严重影响的「非典」 And a lot of them, like SARS, have caused tremendous problems.
就是肺结核的新变种 还有其它的疾病 The resistant forms of tuberculosis. There are others.
还有一些疾病死灰复燃 And there's been a re-emergence of some diseases
尽管曾经被人类征服 that were once under control.
众人熟知的禽流感 就是一个严重的例子 The avian flu, of course, quite a serious matter, as you know.
西尼罗热 West Nile Virus.
1999年登陆马里兰东岸 It came to the eastern shore of Maryland in 1 999.
2年后就越过了密西西比 Two years later, it was across the Mississippi.
又是2年过去，它已经肆虐整个大陆 And two years after that, it had spread across the continent.
这都是很隐蔽的信号 But these are very troubling signs.
世界各地的珊瑚礁 Coral reefs all over the world
由于全球变暖等原因 because of global warming and other factors
正逐渐褪色，变成这个样子 are bleaching and they end up like this.
那些依赖珊瑚礁的鱼类 And all the fish species that depend on the coral reefs
也濒临灭绝 are also in jeopardy as a result.
总的来说，现在物种灭绝的速度 Overall, species loss is now occurring
超过自然速度的1000倍以上 at a rate 1,000 times greater than the natural background rate.
这也引出了第二大「警钟」 This brings me to the second canary in the coal mine.
南极 Antarctica.
目前地球上最大面积的冰层 The largest mass of ice on the planet by far.
我的一位朋友1978年说 A friend of mine said in 1 978
「要是你看到南极半岛的冰架裂开」 "If you see the breakup of ice shelves along the Antarctic peninsula
「要小心」 "watch out
「这应该看作是全球变暖的征兆」 "because that should be seen as an alarm bell for global warming."
事实上，要是仔细观察南极半岛 And actually, if you look at the peninsula up close
这些绿斑所在之处 every place where you see one of these green blotches here
就是过去15到20年里断裂的冰架 is an ice shelf larger than the state of Rhode Island
它们的规模都超过了罗得岛州 that has broken up just in the last 1 5 to 20 years.
我想讨论一个冰架 I want to focus on just one of them.
它叫做Larsen B It's called Larsen B.
请各位看这里的黑块 I want you to Iook at these black pools here.
看起来就像穿过了冰层 It makes it seem almost as if we're looking through the ice
看到了下面的海洋 但这只是错觉 to the ocean beneath. But that's an illusion.
这些都是正在融化的冰水 This is melting water that forms in pools
要是坐在直升机上飞过 and if you were flying over it in a helicopter
你会看到它高达700尺 you'd see it's 700 feet tall.
无比宏伟 They are so majestic, so massive.
远处是冰山，而冰山前面 In the distance are the mountains and just before the mountains
就是冰架 is the shelf of the continent, there.
这是浮冰 This is floating ice
这是陆地沿着山坡延伸的冰层 and there's land-based ice on the down slope of those mountains.
从这里到冰山有大约20到25英里 From here to the mountains is about 20 to 25 miles.
人们原以为尽管全球变暖 Now they thought this would be stable for at least 100 years
这里不会有什么变化 even with global warming.
但是研究这个的科学家 The scientists who study these ice shelves
看到这些画面时 were absolutely astonished
大吃一惊 when they were looking at these images.
从2002年1月31日起 Starting on January 31, 2002
短短35天内 in a period of 35 days
冰架完全消失了 this ice shelf completely disappeared.
他们都弄不明白 世界变化怎会如此之快 They could not figure out how in the world this happened so rapidly.
他们回过头来检查 And they went back to try to figure out where they'd gone wrong.
结果发现了这些融化的冰水 And that's when they focused on those pools of melting water.
就在他们还没有弄明白究竟时 But even before they could figure out what had happened there
又发生了别的事情 something else started going wrong.
当漂浮的海基冰层破裂 When the floating sea-based ice cracked up
它不能再保持陆地的冰层 it no longer held back the ice on the land
结果陆基冰层开始掉入海洋 and the land-based ice then started falling into the ocean.
就像是瓶塞被顶出酒瓶一样 It was like letting the cork out of a bottle.
浮冰和陆基冰层并不相同 And there's a difference between floating ice and land-based ice.
就好比杯子里的冰块 That's like the difference between an ice cube floating in a glass of water
一个浮在水面 融化之后不会使水位升高 which when it melts doesn't raise the level of water in the glass
另一个堆在水里 and a cube that's sitting atop a stack of ice cubes
融化后使水漫了出来 which melts and flows over the edge.
这就是为什么太平洋沿岸的人民 That's why the citizens of these Pacific nations
得疏散到纽西兰 have all had to evacuate to New Zealand.
现在我想关注南极洲西部 But I want to focus on West Antarctica
因为它体现了陆基和海基冰层两大要素 because it illustrates two factors about land-based ice and sea-based ice.
它两者兼有因为它其实是由许多小岛组成 It's a little of both. It's propped up on tops of islands
而海洋就在其下面 but the ocean comes up underneath it.
所以海洋升温会对其产生影响 So as the ocean gets warmer, it has an impact on it.
如果它消失了 If this were to go
全球海面会升高20英尺 sea level worldwide would go up 20 feet.
人们监测了冰原底层的异常变化 They've measured disturbing changes on the underside of this ice sheet.
对于另一个 相同大小的冰层而言 It's considered relatively more stable, however
它的变化还算相对稳定的 than another big body of ice that's roughly the same size.
若格陵兰消失 同样可以使海面上升20尺 Greenland would also raise sea level almost 20 feet
若格陵兰消失 同样可以使海面上升20尺
if it went.
我的一个朋友刚刚带回来一组照片 A friend of mine just brought back some pictures
关于格陵兰的近况 of what's going on on Greenland right now.
戏剧性地，这里也有类似的冰泊 Dramatic changes. These are the same kinds of pools
同南极的冰架情形一样 that formed here, on this ice shelf in Antarctica.
科学家以为 And the scientists thought
水一遇到冰，就会冻起来 that when that water seeped back into the ice, it would just refreeze.
但他们发现事实上 But they found out that actually what happens
水一直往里流，一直延伸到底部 is that it just keeps on going. It tunnels to the bottom
整个冰架就像一块瑞士奶酪一样 and makes the ice like Swiss cheese
或是白蚁洞 sort of like termites.
这里展示了裂隙造成的后果 This shows what happens to the crevasses
一旦形成了湖，就会产生冰川蜗穴 and when lakes form, they create what are called moulins.
水一直流到底部 The water goes down to the bottom
在底部的冰和基岩之间起到润滑作用 and it lubricates where the ice meets the bedrock.
这里是一群人在勘测 See these people here for scale.
而这不是在格陵兰岛边缘 而是在冰层正中间 This is not on the edge of Greenland, this is in the middle of the ice mass.
出现了冰雪融水组成的湍急水流 This is a massive rushing torrent
出现了冰雪融水组成的湍急水流
of fresh melt water
穿透格陵兰的冰层 tunneling straight down through the Greenland ice
直流入底部的基岩 to the bedrock below.
尽管冰层一直都有季节性的融化 Now, to some extent, there has always been seasonal melting
过去也有冰川蜗穴形成 但与现在的情形截然不同 and moulins have formed in the past, but not like now.
这是1992年人们测量的 格陵兰融冰的数量 In 1 992, they measured this amount of melting in Greenland.
这里是10年以后的景象 Ten years later, this is what happened.
到了2005年则变成这样 And here is the melting from 2005.
托尼.布莱尔的科学顾问说过 Tony Blair's scientific advisor has said that
以格陵兰目前的状况 because of what's happening in Greenland right now
我们不得不重绘世界地图 the maps of the world will have to be redrawn.
如果格陵兰融化瓦解 If Greenland broke up and melted
或者格陵兰和南极洲西部 or if half of Greenland and half of West Antarctica
各融化一半 broke up and melted
佛罗里达将会是这样的场景 this is what would happen to the sea level in Florida.
这是旧金山湾 This is what would happen to San Francisco Bay.
这些地方都有大量人口 A lot of people live in these areas.
低地国家荷兰 The Netherlands, one of the low countries.
完全是毁灭性的灾难 Absolutely devastating.
北京周边地区，上千万人口受灾 The area around Beijing that's home to tens of millions of people.
上海这边更糟 Even worse, in the area around Shanghai
有4千万人口 there are 40 million people.
这边也不容乐观 从加尔各答到东部的孟买 Worse still, Calcutta, and to the east, Bangladesh
将殃及6千万人口 the area covered includes 60 million people.
想象一下成百上千的难民 Think of the impact of a couple hundred thousand refugees
因为环境变迁而流离失所 when they're displaced by an environmental event.
再想象若变成上亿人 会有怎样的影响 And then imagine the impact of a hundred million or more.
曼哈顿 Here's Manhattan.
这是世贸中心纪念碑 This is the World Trade Center memorial site.
9.11的以后 And after the horrible events of 9/1 1
人们说「愿悲剧不再重演」 we said, "Never again."
人们说「愿悲剧不再重演」
但结果呢 But this is what would happen to Manhattan.
科学家可以算出精确的数字 They can measure this precisely
就像他们准确地预测了 just as the scientists could predict precisely
多大的洪水会冲垮纽奥良的堤坝 how much water would breach the levees in New Orleans.
世贸中心纪念碑坐落的地方 The area where the World Trade Center Memorial is to be located
将被水淹没 would be underwater.
除了恐怖主义 我们是不是该应对其它的威胁？ Is it possible that we should prepare against other threats besides terrorists?
也许还有别的问题需要加以关注 Maybe we should be concerned about other problems as well.
13亿人口 1.3 billion people.
飞速增长的经济 An economy that's surging.
越来越大的能源需求 More and more energy needs.
丰富的煤炭储量 Massive coal reserves.
中国北部的煤矿带 The coal belt in Northern China
- 内蒙古 - 嗯 -Inner Mongolia. -Right.
还有陕西省 Then there's Shaanxi province.
- 这里也有大型煤矿 - 就在这里 -And also biggest coal mine here. -Up here.
- 是的 - 露天煤矿？ -Yeah. -Now, is that an open pit mine?
是的…… -Yes. -Yes.
- 我每次去中国，接触到那些科学家 - ……露天煤矿 Every time I've visited China
- 都感觉中国也面临严峻考验 - ……不需要深挖 I've learned from their scientists. They're right on the cutting edge.
能不能给我个概念 Give me some sense of the numbers of
目前新建的火力发电站有多少 new coal fire generating plants.
数字十分惊人 Well, I have to say that the number is enormous
因为有巨大的利益驱动 because it's so profitable.
中国的问题同美国一样 This issue is really the same for China as it is for the US.
我们都使用陈旧、易污染的旧技术 We are both using old technologies that are dirty and polluting.
……越来越多的洪涝和干旱 ...more flooding and more drought
还有越来越强的风暴 and stronger storms is going up
这一切都暗示着全球变暖 and global warming is implicated in the pattern.
要是请您给在座各位 And if you were to give some suggestions to everybody here
就目前的状况提出建议…… about, like, what we can do for the situation now.
分清真理和谬论 Separating the truth from the fiction
你们今天所学到的知识 and the accurate connections from the misunderstandings
就能帮助你分辨真伪 is part of what you learn here.
但当那些确凿的 有严密科学依据的忠告到来 But when the warnings are accurate and based on sound science
那么作为人类，不分国籍 then we as human beings, whatever country we live in
必须接受这样的忠告 have to find a way to make sure
然后作出应有的响应 that the warnings are heard and responded to.
我们为了废除「陋习」 We both have a hard time shaking loose the familiar patterns
都作出了艰苦的努力 that we've relied on in the past.
却面对着难以接受的结果 We both face completely unacceptable consequences.
我们正目击人类文明与地球的冲突
有三大因素促成了这一冲突 And there are three factors that are causing this collision
第一是人口 and the first is population.
我这代生于二战之后的「婴儿潮」 When my generation, the baby boom generation, was born after World War II
当时世界人口刚刚越过20亿 the population had just crossed the two billion mark.
现在我50多岁 Now, I'm in my 50s
世界人口已经达到65亿 and it's already gone to almost six and a half billion.
我要是能活到「婴儿潮」 这代人的平均寿命 And if I reach the demographic expectation for the baby boomers
这个数字会变成90亿 it'll go over nine billion.
人口增长用了10000代才达到20亿 So if it takes 10,000 generations to reach two billion
而在我们这一代 and then in one human lifetime, ours
就从20亿飙升到90亿 it goes from two billion to nine billion
同时引起了翻天覆地的变化 something profoundly different's going on right now.
地球的压力越来越大 We're putting more pressure on the Earth.
而且集中在那些贫困国家 Most of it's in the poorer nations of the world.
食品紧张 This puts pressure on food demand.
淡水紧张 It puts pressure on water demand.
脆弱的自然资源也受到威胁 It puts pressure on vulnerable natural resources
这也是为什么 and this pressure's one of the reasons
各地的植被遭受严重破坏 why we have seen all the devastation of the forest
不仅仅在雨林，各地都是 not only tropical, but elsewhere.
这是一个政治问题 It is a political issue.
海地和多米尼加之间的国界线 This is the border between Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
左边一个政权 右边另一个政权 One set of policies here, another set of policies here.
破坏植被的不仅仅是砍伐 还有焚烧 Much of it comes not only because of cutting, but also burning.
每年30%的二氧化碳排放 Almost 30% of all the CO2 that goes up each year into the atmosphere
来自焚烧森林 comes from forest burning.
这是在6个月里 地球的夜间动态延时照片 This is a time-lapse picture of the Earth at night over a six-month period
城市的灯光是白色 showing the lights of the cities in white
红色则代表森林大火 and the burning forests and brush fires in red.
黄色代表煤气燃烧的火焰 像这里的西伯利亚 The yellow areas are the gas flares, like these in Siberia.
这样就引出了 And that brings me to the second factor
改变人与自然关系的第二大因素 that has transformed our relationship to the Earth.
科学和技术革命造福了全人类 The scientific and technological revolution is a great blessing
在诸如交通和医疗方面 in that it has given us tremendous benefits
给我们带来了诸多便利 in areas like medicine and communications.
但也赋予我们责任 But this new power that we have also brings a responsibility
去考虑可能造成的后果 to think about its consequences.
这里有个公式 Here's a formula to think about.
旧习惯结合旧技术 其结果可以预见 Old habits plus old technology have predictable consequences.
难以改变的旧习惯加上新技术 Old habits that are hard to change plus new technology
却会得到截然相反的结果 can have dramatically altered consequences.
刀光剑影的战争 Warfare with spears and bows and arrows
或者机枪火炮 这是一回事 and rifles and machine guns, that's one thing.
但当新技术出现 But then a new technology came.
我们则必须用新的眼光来看待战争 We have to think differently about war
因为新技术已经完全颠覆了 because the new technologies so completely transformed
过去战争的概念 the consequences of that old habit
因此我们不能 盲目地走过去的老路 that we can't just mindlessly continue the patterns of the past.
同样地，我们耕作以获取食物 In the same way, we have always exploited the Earth for sustenance.
大部分人类历史 我们都使用相对简单的工具 For most of our existence, we used relatively simple tools.
犁、拖拉机 The plow, the tractor.
但就是铲子 今天也大不同于过去 But even tools like shovels are different now.
这是以前的铲子 Shovel used to be this.
现在却要大得多 Shovels have gotten bigger.
每一年，它都越来越强大 And every year, they get more powerful.
所以在这个问题上 人类对地球表面的影响 So our ability to have an effect, in this case on the surface of the Earth
已经大不同于昨天 is utterly transformed.
你会认为对于灌溉来说 进步是件好事 You can say the same thing about irrigation, which is a great thing.
[ 科罗拉多河 ] 但要是我们不计后果地从河里抽水 But when we divert rivers without considering the consequences
河流也许再也没法流入大海 then sometimes rivers no longer reach the sea.
中亚有两条河 There were two rivers in Central Asia
曾经被苏联盲目地 that were used by the former Soviet Union
用来灌溉棉花田 for irrigating cotton fields unwisely.
咸海就是由它们汇成 The Aral Sea was fed by them.
它曾经是世界上第4大内陆海 It used to be the fourth largest inland sea in the world.
但我到那里时 看到了这幅奇怪的景象 When I went there, I saw this strange sight
一艘巨大的渔船停在沙漠里 of an enormous fishing fleet resting in the sand.
这是绝望的捕鱼业 面对消失的海岸线 This is the canal that the fishing industry desperately tried to build
开挖的沟渠 to get to the receding shoreline.
同自然打交道，稍有不慎 Making mistakes in our dealings with nature can have
就会酿成恶果 bigger consequences now
新技术规模上往往超出普通人 because our technologies are often bigger than the human scale.
把它们结合到一起 就能赋予我们强大的力量 When you put them all together, they've made us a force of nature.
这同样是一个政治问题 And this is also a political issue.
这是计算机绘制的世界地图 This is a computer map of the world
按照对全球变暖 影响力的比例绘制 that distorts to show the relative contributions to global warming.
我们国家的影响 等于整个南美洲 In our country, we are responsible for more than all of South America
加上非洲、中东 all of Africa, all of the Middle East
以及亚洲的总合 all of Asia, all combined.
这是非洲、印度、中国、日本 欧盟、俄罗斯的人均二氧化碳排放 The per capita average in Africa, India, China, Japan, EU, Russia.
还有我们的 远远超过其余几个 There's where we are. Way, way above everyone else.
要是乘上人口 情况稍有不同 If you take population into account, it's a little bit different.
中国和欧盟都有所增加 China's playing a bigger role, so is Europe.
但我们仍然是最大的「贡献者」 But we are still by all odds the largest contributor.
现在轮到我们来检视自己的看法了 And so it is up to us to look at how we think about it
因为这是第三个 也是最后一个 because our way of thinking is the third and final factor
改变人与自然关系的要素 that transforms our relationship to the Earth.
一只青蛙跳进沸水里 If a frog jumps into a pot of boiling water
会马上跳出来 因为它能感觉到危险 it jumps right out again because it senses the danger.
但同一只青蛙 But the very same frog
跳进冷水里 if it jumps into a pot of lukewarm water
然后慢慢加热到沸腾 that is slowly brought to a boil
它只会一动不动地呆在那里 will just sit there and it won't move.
就算温度不断升高 也不知道离开 It'll just sit there, even as the temperature continues to go up and up.
就一直这样，直到…… 直到被救出去 It'll stay there, until... Until it's rescued.
这只青蛙是得救起来 It's important to rescue the frog.
但转念一想呢 But the point is this.
我们大众意识和那只青蛙一样 Our collective nervous system is like that frog's nervous system.
对于突发危险有应急行为 It takes a sudden jolt sometimes before we become aware of a danger.
但若其逐渐变化，尽管速度飞快 If it seems gradual, even if it really is happening quickly
我们也会坐视不管 we're capable of just sitting there and not responding.
无动于衷 And not reacting.
无动于衷
在我童年的记忆里 I don't remember a time when I was a kid
没有哪个夏天 不是在忙碌的种植烟草中度过 when summertime didn't mean working with tobacco.
我……一度很喜欢这一切 It was just... I used to love it. It was during that period
同农场里的人们一起劳作 when working with the guys on the farm
十分开心 seemed like fun to me.
1964年卫生部公布报告 Starting in 1 964, with the Surgeon General's report
吸烟与肺癌 the evidence was laid out on the connection
被证实存在必然联系 between smoking cigarettes and lung cancer.
我们仍继续种植烟草 We kept growing tobacco.
Nancy比我大10岁 Nancy was almost 10 years older than me
我们俩总是在一起 and there were only the two of us.
她是我的保护神 She was my protector
也是我的好朋友 and my friend at the same time.
她从青年时开始吸烟 She started smoking when she was a teenager
从未间断 and never stopped.
最后死于肺癌 She died of lung cancer.
你绝不想那样死去 That's one of the ways you don't want to die.
一想到自己 The idea that we had been
作为这个经济现象的一分子 part of that economic pattern
生产香烟 that produced the cigarettes
也「生产」了癌症 that produced the cancer
简直…… it was so...
感到无比的痛苦 It was so painful on so many levels.
我那种了一辈子的烟草的父亲 从此没有再种 My father, he had grown tobacco all his life. He stopped.
过去任何变故 Whatever explanation
都没有能阻止他 had seemed to make sense in the past, just didn't cut it anymore.
这次却毅然收手 He stopped it.
顺藤摸瓜是人类天性 的确如此 It's just human nature to take time to connect the dots. I know that.
我知道总有一天 当人们期望更快地知道结果 But I also know that there can be a day of reckoning
就会回头重新审视整个过程 when you wish you had connected the dots more quickly.
有三大误区迷惑了大众 There are three misconceptions in particular that bedevil our thinking.
第一，科学界对于这个问题 First, isn't there a disagreement among scientists
是否还存在分歧 about whether the problem is real or not?
事实上，没有 Actually, not really.
曾有一项科学论文大型调查 There was a massive study of every scientific article
对象是过去10年里 所有关于全球变暖的专家评审文章 in a peer-reviewed journal written on global warming for the last 1 0 years.
做了10%的海量采样 共有928篇 And they took a big sample of 1 0%, 928 articles.
知不知道这里面 反对这一全球共识 And you know the number of those that disagreed with the scientific consensus
是人类引起全球变暖 或认为该问题无足轻重的有多少篇？ that we're causing global warming and that it's a serious problem?
所有的928篇里面 一篇也没有 Out of the 928, zero.
关于科学界存在分歧的谬论 The misconception that there's disagreement about the science
其实是一小撮人故意捏造的 has been deliberately created by a relatively small group of people.
有一份他们的内部文件泄露出来 One of their internal memos leaked.
报纸上是这样写的 And here's what it said, according to the press.
他们的目的就是 「将全球变暖」 Their objective is to reposition global warming
「重新定义为理论而不是事实」 as theory rather than fact.
[医生都爱抽「骆驼牌」 ] 这是陈年旧事了 This has happened before.
[医生都爱抽「骆驼牌」 ] 这是陈年旧事了
就在卫生部的报告公布以后 After the Surgeon General's report.
40年前的一份文件泄露出来 这是他们的话 One of their memos leaked 40 years ago. Here's what they said.
「公众的顾虑就是销量的保证」 "Doubt is our product
「公众的顾虑就是销量的保证」
「这是迷惑大众最有力的切入点」 "since it is the best means of creating a controversy in the public's mind."
他们成功了吗？ But have they succeeded?
各位还记得那928篇专家评审的论文 You'll remember that there were 928 peer-reviewed articles.
没有一篇反对这一共识 Zero percent disagreed with the consensus.
这里是另一个面向大众读物的调查 There was another study of all the articles in the popular press.
在过去14年里 抽样调查了636篇 Over the last 1 4 years, they looked at a sample of 636.
一半以上的文章写 More than half of them said
「这个问题嘛，我不清楚 可能是也可能不是」 "Well, we're not sure. It could be a problem, may not be a problem."
怪不得我们会如此迷惑 So no wonder people are confused.
喂 Hey.
发现什么了？ What did you find out?
给谁工作？ Working for who?
主管？ Chief of Staff?
我要…… I'm gonna...
那是白宫环境办公室 That's the White House environment office.
美国石油协会 可以说那就是个游说团 American Petroleum Institute. It's fair to say that's the oil and gas lobby.
可以这样说吗？ Is that fair?
完全可以 Totally fair.
作进一步调查 看看他们的客户是谁 Do a little bit more and see who his clients were.
这么说他是 在为埃克森.瓦尔迪兹的船难辨护 So he was defending the Exxon Valdez thing.
很好 谢谢你 Uh, very. Thank you.
科学家有一个不容侵犯的职责 Scientists have an independent obligation
就是尊重他发现的真相 并公诸于众 to respect and present the truth as they see it.
为什么你关于这个问题的陈述 Why do you directly contradict yourself
会自相矛盾？ in the testimony you're giving about this scientific question?
文章最后一段不是我写的 The last paragraph in that section was not a paragraph which I wrote.
是别人加上去的 That was added to my testimony.
要是他们强迫你更改科学结论 If they force you to change a scientific conclusion
那就是他们进行学术造假 it's a form of science fraud by them.
前苏联强迫科学家 You know, in the Soviet Union, ordering scientists
篡改研究成功以取悦其政权 to change their studies to conform with the ideology...
我看到科学家们 I've seen scientists
[ 气象专家称NASA欲封其口 ] 遭到迫害 who were persecuted
受人奚落 ridiculed
丢了饭碗，失去经济来源 deprived of jobs, income
仅仅因为他们发现的 simply because the facts they discovered
是一个「不合时宜」的真相 led them to an inconvenient truth
他们却坚持要将其公诸于众 that they insisted on telling.
他在美国石油协会工作 He worked for the American Petroleum Institute.
2001年1月起 And in January of 2001
主持制定环境政策 he was put by the president in charge of environmental policy.
他收到美国环保署的一份文件 He received a memo from the EPA
警告全球变暖的问题 that warned about global warming
然后做了修改和批示 尽管他根本没有经过任何科学培训 and he edited. He has no scientific training whatsoever.
但他自作主张地反驳了科学家 But he took it upon himself to overrule the scientist.
我说 「我想瞻仰一下这位仁兄的书法」 I said, "I want to see what this guy's handwriting looks like."
这是环保署的原文 这些是他的笔迹 This is the memo from the EPA. These are his actual pen strokes.
他说： 「你不能这么说，纯粹就是猜测」 He says, "No, you can't say this. This is just speculation."
这是白宫的耻辱 This was embarrassing to the White House
所以这位仁兄几天之后就辞职了 so this fellow resigned a few days later.
而辞职当天 就投奔到埃克森.美孚门下 And the day after he resigned, he went to work for Exxon Mobil.
100年前 亚普顿.辛克莱写下了这段话 You know, more than 1 00 years ago, Upton Sinclair wrote this.
「要是给他发薪水的要他往东」 That it's difficult to get a man to understand something
「他怎么可能往西」 if his salary depends upon his not understanding it.
第二大误区 The second misconception.
经济和环境，就像鱼和熊掌 不可兼得 Do we have to choose between the economy and the environment?
这个问题很大 This is a big one.
很多人都这样认为 Lot of people say we do.
我曾劝说往届政府 I was trying to convince the previous administration
老布什政府 劝说其加入地球峰会 the first Bush administration, to go to the Earth Summit.
结果他们开了个白宫新闻发布会 And they organized a big White House conference
说「美国无需自降身价」 to say, "Oh, we're on top of this."
有一幅关于这个的漫画 引起了我的注意 And one of these view graphs caught my attention.
我想专门谈一谈 And I want to talk to you about it for a minute.
这就是我们面临的选择 Now here is the choice that we have to make
根据这些人的说法 according to this group.
天平的两端是不同的东西 We have here a scales that balances two different things.
一边放着金条 On one side, we have gold bars.
看上去不错吧 Don't they look good?
给我两块就知足了 I'd just like to have some of those gold bars.
天平的另一端呢 整个地球！ On the other side of the scales, the entire planet.
我认为不存在这样的选择 原因有二 I think this is a false choice for two reasons.
一，要是地球不存在了…… Number one, if we don't have a planet...
另一个原因是 如我们做得好 The other reason is that if we do the right thing
同样会带来滚滚财源 then we're gonna create a lot of wealth
- 还会带来更多的工作机会 - 说得对 -and we're gonna create a lot of jobs. -Yes.
正确的道路才能帮助我们前进 Because doing the right thing moves us forward.
这样的演说 我做了千百次 I've probably given this slide show 1,000 times.
准确地说，至少有1000次 I would say, at least 1,000 times.
从纳什维尔到诺克斯维尔 阿斯本、圣得西 Nashville to Knoxville to Aspen and Sundance.
洛杉矶、旧金山、 波特兰、明尼阿波斯 Los Angeles and San Francisco. Portland, Minneapolis.
波斯顿、纽哈芬、伦敦、布鲁塞尔 斯德哥尔摩、赫尔辛基 Boston, New Haven, London, Brussels, Stockholm, Helsinki
维也纳、慕尼黑、意大利、西班牙 Vienna, Munich, Italy and Spain
中国、韩国、日本 and China, South Korea, Japan.
谢谢 Thank you.
我认为自己在这个演讲上 投入空前的精力 I guess the thing I've spent more time on than anything else in this slide show
是想替人们清除 is trying to identify
那些思想上的顽石 all those things in people's minds
以便人们能理解这一切 that serve as obstacles to them understanding this.
无论何时我发现一块顽石 And whenever I feel like I've identified an obstacle
就会尽力将它打散、滚走、搬到一边 I try to take it apart, roll it away. Move it.
敲烂、炸得粉碎 Demolish it, blow it up.
我给自己定下一个目标 I set myself a goal.
要将这一观念清楚地传播下去 Communicate this real clearly.
我所知道的唯一办法 The only way I know to do it
就是一个城市一个城市 is city by city
一个人接一个人 person by person
挨家挨户地演讲 family by family.
- 再见，谢谢 - 再见 -Bye-bye. Thank you again. -Bye.
我坚信不久之后 And I have faith that pretty soon
唤醒足够多的人 enough minds are changed
我们就能迈过这个门坎 that we cross a threshold.
我来举例说明 Let me give you an example
错误地对待环境和经济平衡的后果 of the wrong way to balance the economy and the environment.
[ 温室气体排放标准 ] 其中一个与汽车相关 One part of this issue involves automobiles.
[ 温室气体排放标准 ] 其中一个与汽车相关
[ 温室气体排放标准 ] 日本的续驶里程在这一水平 Japan has mileage standards up here.
欧盟计划超过日本 Europe plans to pass Japan.
我们的盟国澳大利亚和加拿大 也把我们远远抛在后面 Our allies in Australia and Canada are leaving us behind.
这里是我们的标准 Here is where we are.
为什么会这样呢 Now there's a reason for it.
他们说美国不能太关注环境 They say that we can't protect the environment too much
以至于影响了经济 威胁到汽车制造商 without threatening the economy and threatening the automakers.
因为中国的汽车制造商 会跑进来蚕食我们的市场 Because automakers in China might come in and just steal all our markets.
而这是中国目前的续驶里程标准 Well, here is where China's auto mileage standards are now.
远比我们高 Way above ours.
我们没法买汽车给中国 We can't sell our cars in China today
因为没法达到中国的环境标准 because we don't meet the Chinese environmental standards.
加利福利亚已经做出一个创举 California has taken an initiative
规定其境内出售的汽车 要有更高的续驶里程 to have higher-mileage cars sold in California.
结果汽车商起诉加州政府 Now the auto companies have sued California
以阻止此项法律生效 to prevent this law from taking effect
因为他们宣称 because, as they point out, 1 1 years from now
这样就等于要求加州出售的汽车 this would mean that California would have to have cars for sale
11年后 that are as efficient 1 1 years from now
能达到中国目前的水平 as China's are today.
这要求简直太「高」了 Clearly too onerous a provision to comply with.
那我们的公司是不是业绩如虹呢？ And is this helping our companies succeed?
[ 市场占有率变化 ] 事实上 看看世界上谁做得最好 Well, actually, if you look at who's doing well in the world
是制造节能汽车的公司 it's the companies that are building more-efficient cars.
而我们的公司则陷入困境 And our companies are in deep trouble.
最后一大误区 Final misconception.
「就算承认这一问题的存在」 If we accept that this problem is real
「我们也无能为力了」 maybe it's just too big to do anything about.
很多人，从拒绝承认 And, you know, there are a lot of people who go straight from denial
径自走入绝望的阴影中 to despair
却不知道停下脚步 without pausing on the intermediate step
着手解决问题 of actually doing something about the problem.
这就是我最后想谈的 目前人们已知的 And that's what I'd like to finish with. The fact that we already know
能有效解决这一问题的方法 everything we need to know to effectively address this problem.
我们需要做大量的工作 而不仅仅局限于一件事 We've got to do a lot of things, not just one.
如果我们使用更节能的 If we use more efficient
家用电器 electricity appliances
就能减少这么多的污染排放 we can save this much off of the global warming pollution
这些原本都进入了大气 that would otherwise be put into the atmosphere.
要是采用别的节能设备 能减少这么多 If we use other end-use efficiency, this much.
拥有更多续驶里程的汽车 减少这么多 If we have higher mileage cars, this much.
还有更多，别的交通工具节能 And all these begin to add up. Other transport efficiency
可再生能源 renewable technology
碳固存技术…… carbon capture and sequestration.
还有更多的解决方案 A big solution that you're gonna be hearing a lot more about.
这些都加到一起 They all add up
我们很快就能将排放水平 降到1970年以下 and pretty soon we are below our 1 970 emissions.
各方面条件都齐备了 We have everything we need
我们还需要拯救我们的的政治意愿 save perhaps political will.
可不是？在美国 政治意愿就是可「再生」资源 But you know what? In America, political will is a renewable resource.
我们有这个能力 We have the ability to do this.
每个人都在引起全球变暖 Each one of us is a cause of global warming
但我们可以选择改变这一现状 but each of us can make choices to change that.
买的东西、用的电、开的车…… With the things we buy, the electricity we use, the cars we drive
我们可以选择 将个人二氧化碳排放降到0 we can make choices to bring our individual carbon emissions to zero.
解药就在你我手里 The solutions are in our hands.
我们只需要做出决定使其生效 We just have to have the determination to make them happen.
我们甘愿走在全世界的后面吗？ Are we gonna be left behind as the rest of the world moves forward?
那么多国家认同京都议定书 All of these nations have ratified Kyoto.
只有两个发达国家反对 There are only two advanced nations in the world that have not ratified Kyoto
我们是其中之一 另一个是澳大利亚 and we are one of them. The other is Australia.
幸运的是 很多州开始采取行动 Luckily, several states are taking the initiative.
北部9个州已经联合起来 The nine northeastern states have banded together
着手减少二氧化碳排放 on reducing CO2.
加州和俄勒冈已经行动起来 California and Oregon are taking the initiative.
宾夕法尼亚在利用 太阳能和风能上走在最前面 Pennsylvania's exercising leadership on solar power and wind power.
美国的各大城市也纷纷采取行动 And US cities are stepping up to the plate.
我们可以看到，一个个城市 One after the other, we have seen
〔支持京都议定书的城市〕 致力于解决全球变暖问题 all of these cities pledge to take on global warming.
那我们呢？ So what about the rest of us?
这个问题最终落实到一点 Ultimately this question comes down to this.
我们，作为美国公民 Are we, as Americans
有没有能力完成这一伟大义举 capable of doing great things
就算前方路途坎坷？ even though they are difficult?
我们有没有能力站起来 Are we capable
立于人类历史之上？ of rising above ourselves and above history?
过去的一切证明我们有这个能力 Well, the record indicates that we do have that capacity.
我们建立了一个国家 发起了一个革命 We formed a nation, we fought a revolution
还带来了新的创举 and brought something new to this Earth
一个保障个人独立的自由国家 a free nation guaranteeing individual liberty.
美国遵从道德的决定 否认了奴隶制 America made a moral decision. Its slavery was wrong
也不允许一半自由 一半奴役 and that we could not be half free and half slave.
我们美国人 We, as Americans, decided
决定女性应当享有选举权 that of course women should have the right to vote.
我们打败极权主义 同时在太平洋和大西洋 We defeated totalitarianism and won a war
获得了战争的胜利 in the Pacific and the Atlantic simultaneously.
我们在学校里废除了种族隔离 We desegregated our schools.
我们战胜了小儿麻痹症 And we cured fearsome diseases like polio.
登上了月球 We landed on the moon.
证明我们只要齐心 就没有什么不可能 The very example of what's possible when we are at our best.
我们国内两党联起手来 We worked together in a completely bipartisan way
推翻了共产主义 to bring down communism.
我们曾成功解决一大环境问题 We have even solved a global environmental crisis before
臭氧层空洞 the hole in the stratospheric ozone layer.
这曾被称为是不可能解决的 This was said to be an impossible problem to solve
因为它是全球性的环境问题 because it's a global environmental challenge
需要全世界国家连手解决 requiring cooperation from every nation in the world.
但我们成功了 But we took it on.
美国在淘汰有害化学物品上 And the United States took the lead in phasing out the chemicals
也走在世界的前列 that caused that problem.
因此我们需要 在政治上发扬民主主义 So now we have to use our political processes in our democracy
齐心协力共渡难关 and then decide to act together to solve those problems.
同时还要从全新的视角看待这一危机 But we have to have a different perspective on this one.
因为它绝不同于过去任何问题 It's different from any problem we have ever faced before.
记不记得那个地球自转的短片？ You remember that home movie of the Earth spinning in space?
其中一个飞船继续向外飞行 One of those spacecraft continuing on out into the universe
当它走到离地球40亿英里的地方 when it got four billion miles out in space
Carl Sagan说： 「让我们给地球再拍一张」 Carl Sagan said, "Let's take another picture of the Earth."
你看到那个淡蓝色的点了？ You see that pale blue dot?
这就是我们 That's us.
人类历史的一切 Everything that has ever happened in all of human history
都在这个小点上 has happened on that pixel.
所有的成功、失败 All the triumphs and all the tragedies.
所有的战争、饥荒 All the wars, all the famines.
所有的重大发展 All the major advances.
这就是我们唯一的家园 It's our only home.
如今它面临危机 And that is what is at stake.
危及到我们的生存 Our ability to live
危及到我们的生存
on planet Earth
和人类文明的未来 to have a future as a civilization.
我坚信这是一个道德问题 I believe this is a moral issue.
是时候着手解决它了 It is your time to seize this issue.
人类要站起来，保护我们的未来 It is our time to rise again, to secure our future.
我今天所做的一切 没有什么特别的 There's nothing that unusual about what I'm doing with this.
不同的是，我在能年轻的时候 What is unusual is that I had the privilege to be shown it
就有幸能向人们展示这一切 as a young man.
就有幸能向人们展示这一切
女士们先生们 有请艾尔.高尔先生 Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Al Gore.
像是开了一扇窗 It's almost as if a window was opened through which
而未来就在眼前 the future was very clearly visible.
「看到了吗？」他说 「你看到了吗？」 "See that?" he said, "See that?
「这就是你赖以生存的未来」 "That's the future in which you are going to live your life. "
我们的后代 Future generations
偶尔也会自问 may well have occasion to ask themselves
「我们的长辈们是怎么回事？」 "What were our parents thinking?
「在来得及的时候 为什么都不知道清醒」 "Why didn't they wake up when they had a chance?"
他们的问题，我们现在就应该想到 We have to hear that question from them, now.
正片还未结束 请耐心看完后面的内容
现在就改变生活，你准备好了吗？
气候危机可以解决
就从这里开始
访问 www.climatecrisis.net
你能减少你的二氧化碳排放
甚至减少到0
导 演 戴维斯.古根海姆
购买节能电器：比如节能灯泡
改进你的调温器：换成定时的 减少冷暖气的能耗
对房屋作节能评估 改进隔热性能
加强能源的循环利用
有能力的话 请购买混合动力汽车
多步行，或者骑自行车
乘坐轻轨或者地铁
告诉你的父母不要毁了你以后赖以生存的世界
如果你是家长 请与你的孩子一起
拯救他们以后赖以生存的世界
使用可再生能源
咨询当地能源公司 是否提供绿色能源
如果他们不提供，询问原因
选举致力于解决气候危机的领导人
上书国会
如不采纳 就参加国会竞选
植树：种很多很多树
到所在小区呼吁
参与电台热线、在报纸上宣传
坚决减少美国的二氧化碳排放
联合国际上的力量 阻止全球变暖
减少我们对进口石油的依赖
帮助农民种植醇类燃料作物
提高能源经济标准，减少汽车费气排放
如果你祷告
祈祷人类能拿出改变的勇气
《清醒吧》 词曲、演唱 玛莉萨.艾瑟里奇
非洲的古谚说
当你祈祷的时候，也同时采取行动
鼓励身边的人都来观看这部电影
尽可能了解气候危机的知识
然后把知识变成行动的力量