世界正在
The world is changing
以惊人的速度飞快得改变着。
with really remarkable speed.
如果你看着这上方的图表，
If you look at the chart at the top here,
你会看到在2025年，
you'll see that in 2025,
高盛投资公司的这些预测
these Goldman Sachs projections
表明中国经济规模
suggest that the Chinese economy
会和美国经济几乎相当。
will be almost the same size as the American economy.
如果看
And if you look at the chart
2050年的图表，
for 2050,
预测表明中国经济规模
it's projected that the Chinese economy
将会是美国经济的两倍，
will be twice the size of the American economy,
印度的经济规模将会和
and the Indian economy will be almost the same size
美国的经济几乎持平。
as the American economy.
在这里，我们应该记住
And we should bear in mind here
这些预测是在
that these projections were drawn up
西方经济危机之前做出的。
before the Western financial crisis.
几周前，
A couple of weeks ago,
我查看法国巴黎银行的
I was looking at the latest projection
最近预测，
by BNP Paribas
中国在什么时候
for when China
会超越美国经济，
will have a larger economy
成为第一大经济体。
than the United States.
高盛投资公司预测2027年。
Goldman Sachs projected 2027.
危机过后的预测
The post-crisis projection
是2020年。
is 2020.
这也不过只有10年的光景。
That's just a decade away.
中国将在两个基本方面上
China is going to change the world
改变世界。
in two fundamental respects.
首先，
First of all,
中国是一个幅员广大的发展中国家
it's a huge developing country
它有13亿人口，
with a population of 1.3 billion people,
在过去30年间
which has been growing for over 30 years
它以每年10%左右的经济增长率发展。
at around 10 percent a year.
在未来10年间，
And within a decade,
它会有世界上最大的经济体。
it will have the largest economy in the world.
在世界现代史中，以前从来都是发达国家
Never before in the modern era
还没有一个发展中的国家
has the largest economy in the world
变成了世界上
been that of a developing country,
最大的经济体。
rather than a developed country.
第二，
Secondly,
在现代史中第一次
for the first time in the modern era,
在世界上，
the dominant country in the world --
我认为中国会变成大国，
which I think is what China will become --
它有别于西方国家
will be not from the West
而它是从非常，非常不同的
and from very, very different
文明根源发展起的大国。
civilizational roots.
现在我知道西方国家有一个普遍的假设
Now, I know it's a widespread assumption in the West
随着国家的现代化，
that as countries modernize,
它们也会西方化。
they also westernize.
这是个幻想。
This is an illusion.
这是对于现代化
It's an assumption that modernity
仅仅是竞争，市场和技术的一种产品的假设。
is a product simply of competition, markets and technology.
中国的现代化不仅仅是这样的，也是由
It is not. It is also shaped equally
历史和文化共同作用下形成的。
by history and culture.
中国不同于西方国家，
China is not like the West,
它也不会变成和西方国家一样。
and it will not become like the West.
它会在非常基础的方面表现得
It will remain in very fundamental respects
非常不同。
very different.
现在这的大问题明显是，
Now the big question here is obviously,
我们该怎样认识中国？
how do we make sense of China?
我们该怎样了解中国？
How do we try to understand what China is?
在西方我们现在的问题大体上
And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large,
是传统的方法
is that the conventional approach
我们用西方的术语，用西方的观点来了解
is that we understand it really in Western terms,
真正的中国。
using Western ideas.
我们不能这样。
We can't.
现在我想给大家
Now I want to offer you
3个基础理由
three building blocks
来试着了解中国
for trying to understand what China is like,
只是起个头。
just as a beginning.
首先是这个，
The first is this:
中国事实上不是一个民族国家。
that China is not really a nation-state.
在过去的几百年，中国自称是一个
Okay, it's called itself a nation-state
民族国家。
for the last hundred years,
但对中国很了解的人
but everyone who knows anything about China
知道中国比这历史要悠久得多。
knows it's a lot older than this.
中国是在公元前221年
This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty
也就在战国时期的末期从秦朝一统江山起，
in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period --
现代中国就诞生了。
the birth of modern China.
你可以看到现代中国的边界线。
And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.
随之其后的汉朝，
Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty,
还在2000年前。
still 2,000 years ago.
你可以看出中国已经占据
And you can see already it occupies
我们现在所知的华东地区的大部分，
most of what we now know as Eastern China,
绝大多数的中国人当时在那儿居住
which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then
现在还生活在那儿。
and live now.
这点非同寻常的
Now what is extraordinary about this
是，它赋予了中国做为中国的意义，
is, what gives China its sense of being China,
也赋予了中国人
what gives the Chinese
成为他们中国人的意义，
the sense of what it is to be Chinese,
这不是从过去几百年，
comes not from the last hundred years,
也不是从民族国家开始形成这种认识，
not from the nation-state period,
这跟西方发展也不一样，
which is what happened in the West,
而这一阶段，如果你喜欢，
but from the period, if you like,
可以说是文明国家的阶段。
of the civilization-state.
我想到这儿，举个例子吧，
I'm thinking here, for example,
传统习惯例如：对祖先的崇拜，
of customs like ancestral worship,
非常有特色的国家概念，
of a very distinctive notion of the state,
诸如此类的，非常有特色的家庭观念，
likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family,
社交关系如关系，
social relationships like guanxi,
儒家价值观等等。
Confucian values and so on.
所有这些事都来自于
These are all things that come
文明国家的阶段。
from the period of the civilization-state.
换言之，中国不像世界上的
In other words, China, unlike the Western states
西方国家和多数国家，
and most countries in the world,
它由它自身文明所形成，
is shaped by its sense of civilization,
它是作为一个文明国家
its existence as a civilization-state,
而不是一个民族国家而存在的。
rather than as a nation-state.
还有另一件事要加进来，这就是：
And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this:
当然我们知道中国是幅员辽阔，人口众多，
Of course we know China's big, huge,
在人口统计和地理上都是首屈一指，
demographically and geographically,
它有13亿人口。
with a population of 1.3 billion people.
我们常常没关注的
What we often aren't really aware of
事实是
is the fact
中国也是极其多样化
that China is extremely diverse
和非常多元化的，
and very pluralistic,
在许多方面甚至权力是非常分散化的。
and in many ways very decentralized.
尽管我们认为不能仅从北京中央政府
You can't run a place on this scale
来管理这庞大规模的国家，
simply from Beijing,
我们以为会是这样，
even though we think this to be the case.
但从来都不是这样。
It's never been the case.
所以这才是中国，一个文明国家，
So this is China, a civilization-state,
而不是一个民族国家。
rather than a nation-state.
那这意味着什么呢？
And what does it mean?
那么我想这有很多种深刻的含义。
Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.
我会给你两个简短介绍。
I'll give you two quick ones.
第一个是
The first is that
中国人最主要的政治价值观
the most important political value for the Chinese
是统一，
is unity,
用来维护
is the maintenance
中华文明。
of Chinese civilization.
大家知道，2000年前，欧洲:
You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe:
灭亡，神圣罗马帝国[罗马帝国]的分裂。
breakdown -- the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire.
从那时到现在，它不断地分裂。
It divided, and it's remained divided ever since.
在同一时间段，中国
China, over the same time period,
却有着完全相反的方向，
went in exactly the opposite direction,
非常艰难地维系着这种强大的统一文明，
very painfully holding this huge civilization,
把文明国家统一在一起。
civilization-state, together.
第二
The second
或许是更一般的例子
is maybe more prosaic,
香港的例子。
which is Hong Kong.
大家是否记得香港
Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong
在1997年从英国政府转交给中国政府？
by Britain to China in 1997?
大家能记得
You may remember
中国宪法体制是什么吗？
what the Chinese constitutional proposition was.
一国两制。
One country, two systems.
我会打赌
And I'll lay a wager
在西方没有人会信这一套。
that barely anyone in the West believed them.
“装饰门面。
"Window dressing.
当中国政府接手香港，
When China gets its hands on Hong Kong,
这不可能。”
that won't be the case."
13年来，
Thirteen years on,
香港现在的政治和司法体制
the political and legal system in Hong Kong
和1997年一样，但和中国大陆的有所不同。
is as different now as it was in 1997.
我们都错了，
We were wrong.
为什么我们理解错了呢？
Why were we wrong?
我们错是因为我们理所当然地
We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough,
以民族国家角度思考。
in nation-state ways.
想想1990年德国统一。
Think of German unification, 1990.
发生什么了？
What happened?
基本上东德被西德吞噬。
Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.
一个国家，一个体制。
One nation, one system.
这是民族国家的心态。
That is the nation-state mentality.
但是你不能用此来管理一个像中国这样的，
But you can't run a country like China,
一个文明国家，
a civilization-state,
它建立在一种文明，一个体制上。
on the basis of one civilization, one system.
这行不通。
It doesn't work.
的确中国
So actually the response of China
在香港问题上的回应
to the question of Hong Kong --
也是在台湾问题上的回应，
as it will be to the question of Taiwan --
它是一个很自然的回应：
was a natural response:
一种文明，多种体制。
one civilization, many systems.
让我来说另一个基础理由
Let me offer you another building block
来试着了解中国
to try and understand China --
这或许是一个让人不舒服的理由。
maybe not sort of a comfortable one.
中国与其他大多数国家对
The Chinese have a very, very different
民族的概念
conception of race
有非常，非常不同的理解。
to most other countries.
大家知道，
Do you know,
13亿中国人，
of the 1.3 billion Chinese,
超过90%的中国人
over 90 percent of them
认为他们属于同一个民族，
think they belong to the same race,
汉族。
the Han?
目前这与
Now, this is completely different
世界上其它人口众多的国家截然相反。
from the world's [other] most populous countries.
印度，美国，
India, the United States,
印度尼西亚，巴西，
Indonesia, Brazil --
他们都是多民族的。
all of them are multiracial.
中国人没有感到过多民族。
The Chinese don't feel like that.
中国仅是
China is only multiracial
在边界线上有多种少数民族的人。
really at the margins.
那问题是，为什么？
So the question is, why?
好吧，我认为实质上，原因
Well the reason, I think, essentially
得再次追溯到这文明国家。
is, again, back to the civilization-state.
至少在2000年的历史长河中，
A history of at least 2,000 years,
征服，占领，
a history of conquest, occupation,
合并，同化等的历史
absorption, assimilation and so on,
随着时间的推移导致了
led to the process by which,
汉民族这概念的形成过程
over time, this notion of the Han emerged --
当然，这概念也孕育了
of course, nurtured
增强了汉文化认同感
by a growing and very powerful sense
也使其变得非常强大，具有深远意义。
of cultural identity.
现在这历史经验的巨大优势
Now the great advantage of this historical experience
呈现出来，没有汉民族，
has been that, without the Han,
中国永远不可能连为一体。
China could never have held together.
汉民族文化认同一直
The Han identity has been the cement
把这个国家粘合在一起。
which has held this country together.
它的巨大的劣势
The great disadvantage of it
是汉民族对文化差异
is that the Han have a very weak conception
有很少的认知概念。
of cultural difference.
他们真正相信
They really believe
他们自身汉族文化的优越性，
in their own superiority,
他们不尊重
and they are disrespectful
那些不同民族的差异性。
of those who are not.
因此， 举个例子，比如他们对待
Hence their attitude, for example,
回族和藏族的态度。
to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.
让我给出第三个基础理由，
Or let me give you my third building block,
中国式的国家。
the Chinese state.
现在在中国
Now the relationship
国家和社会间的关系
between the state and society in China
非常不同于西方的那种关系。
is very different from that in the West.
在西方我们
Now we in the West
绝大多数人似乎认为--至少在最近
overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least --
国家的权威和合法性
that the authority and legitimacy of the state
是民主的一个功能。
is a function of democracy.
有关这问题
The problem with this proposition
是中国这个国家
is that the Chinese state
对中国人民享有更多合法性和更多权威性
enjoys more legitimacy and more authority
这比起任何西方国家
amongst the Chinese than is true
它都是事实。
with any Western state.
这个的原因
And the reason for this
是因为
is because --
我认为有两个理由。
well, there are two reasons, I think.
中国很明显与民主无关，
And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy,
因为依我们来看，中国完全称不上是民主。
because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy.
这个理由是，
And the reason for this is,
首先，因为在中国，国家
firstly, because the state in China
是一个非常特别有所指的，
is given a very special --
它享有一个非常特别的意义
it enjoys a very special significance
作为中华文明的代表，
as the representative,
体现
the embodiment and the guardian
和捍卫者，
of Chinese civilization,
也是代表中国国家的代表，化身和捍卫者。
of the civilization-state.
这也接近中国有种
This is as close as China gets
精神象征的作用。
to a kind of spiritual role.
第二个理由是因为，
And the second reason is because,
反之在欧洲，
whereas in Europe
北美洲，
and North America,
国家的权力不断受到挑战。
the state's power is continuously challenged --
我指在欧洲历史传统，
I mean in the European tradition,
历史上反对教堂，
historically against the church,
反对其它各种贵族阶级，
against other sectors of the aristocracy,
反对商人等等
against merchants and so on --
有1000年历史，
for 1,000 years,
中国国家的权力
the power of the Chinese state
从来没被挑战过。
has not been challenged.
它没有真正的对手可抗衡。
It's had no serious rivals.
所以大家可以看到
So you can see
在中国已经建立的权力的方式
that the way in which power has been constructed in China
与我们西方历史的经验
is very different from our experience
非常不同。
in Western history.
顺便提一下，结果
The result, by the way,
是中国人看待国家有非常不同的视角。
is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.
鉴于我们倾向于把国家看作是一个入侵者，
Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder,
一个陌生人，
a stranger,
当然是一个组织
certainly an organ
它的权力需要被限制
whose powers need to be limited
或被界定和约束，
or defined and constrained,
中国人可一点都不这样看待国家。
the Chinese don't see the state like that at all.
中国人视国家
The Chinese view the state
作为一个亲密的朋友，也不止是作为一个密友，
as an intimate -- not just as an intimate actually,
作为家庭里的一员，
as a member of the family --
事实上也不止是家里一员，
not just in fact as a member of the family,
而是一家之长，
but as the head of the family,
家庭里的家长。
the patriarch of the family.
这是从中国视角来看待国家，
This is the Chinese view of the state --
和我们的截然不同。
very, very different to ours.
根植于中国社会的案例
It's embedded in society in a different kind of way
与我们在西方的社会例证
to what is the case
是完全不同的。
in the West.
我给大家的建议是我们的确要了解
And I would suggest to you that actually what we are dealing with here,
在中国背景下，
in the Chinese context,
这是一种新的范例，
is a new kind of paradigm,
它与
which is different from anything
我们过去曾想过的范例是不同的。
we've had to think about in the past.
要知道中国人相信市场和国有。
Know that China believes in the market and the state.
我指，亚当·斯密
I mean, Adam Smith,
在18世纪晚期已经著书，说过，
already writing in the late 18th century, said,
“中国市场比起欧洲的任何一个市场，
"The Chinese market is larger and more developed
它都是较大的，较为发达的
and more sophisticated
也是较为复杂的。”
than anything in Europe."
除了毛泽东时代，
And, apart from the Mao period,
中国市场大体是如上的例证。
that has remained more or less the case ever since.
但这也是
But this is combined
在一个极强大和无处不在的国家做后盾。
with an extremely strong and ubiquitous state.
国家就是中国的一切。
The state is everywhere in China.
我指，它引领着公司，
I mean, it's leading firms --
他们中的许多公司还是国企所有。
many of them are still publicly owned.
私有企业，不管它们有多大，像Lenovo联想，
Private firms, however large they are, like Lenovo,
在很多方面也依赖于国家的资助。
depend in many ways on state patronage.
国家设置了经济目标
Targets for the economy and so on
等等。
are set by the state.
当然，国家的权威也穿插在许多其他方面
And the state, of course, its authority flows into lots of other areas --
比如我们所述熟悉的
as we are familiar with --
独生子女政策。
with something like the one-child policy.
此外，中国是一个非常古老的传统国家，
Moreover, this is a very old state tradition,
有一个非常古老传统的治国纲领。
a very old tradition of statecraft.
如果你想搞明白这样的例子，
I mean, if you want an illustration of this,
长城就是其中一个。
the Great Wall is one.
但这有另一个，这是（京杭）大运河，
But this is another, this is the Grand Canal,
它起初是
which was constructed in the first instance
在公元前5世纪被建造的
in the fifth century B.C.
在公元7世纪时
and was finally completed
它最终竣工。
in the seventh century A.D.
它有1114英里，
It went for 1,114 miles,
链接北京
linking Beijing
到杭州和上海。
with Hangzhou and Shanghai.
在中国，
So there's a long history
非凡的国家大型基础建设的历史
of extraordinary state infrastructural projects
由来已久，
in China,
我认为这也帮助我们来了解我们今天所看到的，
which I suppose helps us to explain what we see today,
例如三峡大坝工程
which is something like the Three Gorges Dam
和许多中国其它的
and many other expressions
国家工程业绩。
of state competence within China.
所以这3个组成部分
So there we have three building blocks
让我们了解中国的不同--
for trying to understand the difference that is China --
文明国家，
the civilization-state,
民族的概念
the notion of race
和国家的属性
and the nature of the state
以及它和社会的关系。
and its relationship to society.
总地说来，我们还一直坚持
And yet we still insist, by and large,
认为我们仅从西方经验的视角
in thinking that we can understand China
就能理解中国
by simply drawing on Western experience,
通过西方人视角
looking at it through Western eyes,
使用西方理念来看透中国。
using Western concepts.
如果你想知道
If you want to know why
我们为什么对中国有错误的认识
we unerringly seem to get China wrong --
我们对在中国发生的事情的预言
our predictions about what's going to happen to China
为什么也是不正确的
are incorrect --
这上所述就是原因。
this is the reason.
不幸的是我认为，
Unfortunately, I think,
我得说我认为
I have to say that I think
对中国的态度
attitude towards China
是西方人的一种心态做崇。
is that of a kind of little Westerner mentality.
这是傲慢的心态。
It's kind of arrogant.
就傲慢的心态而言
It's arrogant in the sense
我们认为我们是最好的，
that we think that we are best,
因此我们有普世的评判标准。
and therefore we have the universal measure.
其次，这是无知的。
And secondly, it's ignorant.
我们拒绝真正承认
We refuse to really address
问题的不同面。
the issue of difference.
《在中国发现历史——中国中心观在美国的兴起》
大家知道，美国历史学家保罗·柯文(Paul Cohen)的书里
You know, there's a very interesting passage
有一段非常有意思的话。
in a book by Paul Cohen, the American historian.
保罗·柯文讲到
And Paul Cohen argues
西方认为它自身文化
that the West thinks of itself
好比是所有文化里最具有国际化的
as probably the most cosmopolitan
文化。
of all cultures.
但事实不是。
But it's not.
在许多方面，
In many ways,
它是最狭隘的，
it's the most parochial,
因为200年来，
because for 200 years,
西方一直主宰世界
the West has been so dominant in the world
它不必
that it's not really needed
去了解其他文化，
to understand other cultures,
其他文明。
other civilizations.
因为，到头来，
Because, at the end of the day,
必要时可动武，
it could, if necessary by force,
彰显其自身文化。
get its own way.
反之这些其它文化
Whereas those cultures --
几乎在世界其它地区的，事实上，
virtually the rest of the world, in fact,
面对西方文化，它们一直处于相对较弱的地位，
which have been in a far weaker position, vis-a-vis the West --
从而也一直被迫来了解西方文化，
have been thereby forced to understand the West,
因为西方文化在这些社会有影响力的原因。
because of the West's presence in those societies.
所以，结果是它们
And therefore, they are, as a result,
在许多方面比起西方更国际化。
more cosmopolitan in many ways than the West.
我们来谈谈东亚的问题。
I mean, take the question of East Asia.
东亚：日本，韩国，中国等等--
East Asia: Japan, Korea, China, etc. --
世界上三分之一人口住在那边，
a third of the world's population lives there.
现在是全球最大的经济区域。
Now the largest economic region in the world.
现在我会告诉你，
And I'll tell you now,
东亚人，东亚的人们，
that East Asianers, people from East Asia,
对西方的认识程度
are far more knowledgeable
比起
about the West
西方国家对东亚的认识程度要深的多。
than the West is about East Asia.
现在我恐怕这个观点到现在还是非常
Now this point is very germane, I'm afraid,
有影响的。
to the present.
因为发生的变化吗？回到开始的图表--
Because what's happening? Back to that chart at the beginning,
高盛投资公司的图表。
the Goldman Sachs chart.
当前发生的
What is happening
是，在历史上非常迅速，
is that, very rapidly in historical terms,
世界不是
the world is being driven
被老旧的发达国家
and shaped,
所驱动和塑造，
not by the old developed countries,
而是被发展中新兴国家。
but by the developing world.
我们看到这个
We've seen this
G20二十国集团
in terms of the G20
它非常迅速地抢占G7七国集团
usurping very rapidly the position of the G7,
或者G8八国集团的地位。
or the G8.
同时这有两个结果。
And there are two consequences of this.
第一，西方
First, the West
正快速地失去
is rapidly losing
它在全球的影响。
its influence in the world.
一年前就有一个戏剧性的例证证明这个观点
There was a dramatic illustration of this actually a year ago --
哥本哈根，气候变化会议。
Copenhagen, climate change conference.
欧洲没有出现在最后讨论谈判桌上。
Europe was not at the final negotiating table.
上次欧洲置之事外是在什么时候？
When did that last happen?
我敢打赌约在200年前也发生同样的事。
I would wager it was probably about 200 years ago.
在未来这还会发生。
And that is what is going to happen in the future.
第二个含义
And the second implication
是世界将不可避免地
is that the world will inevitably, as a consequence,
急剧变化，对我们来说很陌生，
become increasingly unfamiliar to us,
因为世界被我们所不熟悉的或者不精通的文化，
because it'll be shaped by cultures and experiences and histories
经验和历史
that we are not really familiar with,
所重塑。
or conversant with.
最后，我恐怕，拿欧洲来说，
And at last, I'm afraid -- take Europe;
美国是有点不同的
America is slightly different --
但大体上，我得说欧洲人
but Europeans by and large, I have to say,
是无知的，
are ignorant,
他们没有意识到
are unaware
世界上正在发生的改变。
about the way the world is changing.
有人，我有一个在中国的英国朋友，
Some people -- I've got an English friend in China,
他说，“旧大陆在梦游似的会被遗忘。”
and he said, "The continent is sleepwalking into oblivion."
好吧，恐怕是对的，
Well, maybe that's true,
恐怕这有点夸张。
maybe that's an exaggeration.
但另一问题随之产生
But there's another problem which goes along with this --
欧洲正在日益与世界脱节
that Europe is increasingly out of touch with the world --
这是一种
and that is a sort of
对未来感的缺失。
loss of a sense of the future.
当然，我指欧洲曾自信地
I mean, Europe once, of course, once commanded the future
引领未来。
in its confidence.
拿19世纪来举例。
Take the 19th century, for example.
唉，但这已经风光不在。
But this, alas, is no longer true.
如果你想感知未来，如果你想感触未来，
If you want to feel the future, if you want to taste the future,
看看中国，这是古代的孔子。
try China -- there's old Confucius.
这是一个火车站
This is a railway station
这是你以前从未看到过的。
the likes of which you've never seen before.
它看上去不像是火车站。
It doesn't even look like a railway station.
这是为了高速列车行驶而新建的
This is the new [Wuhan] railway station
广州火车站。
for the high-speed trains.
中国已经比起全球其他国家
China already has a bigger network
有更多的铁路网
than any other country in the world
不久就会超过全球铁路网总和。
and will soon have more than all the rest of the world put together.
举个例子：现在这是个想法，
Or take this: now this is an idea,
但这想法不久就会
but it's an idea to be tried out shortly
在北京郊区实现。
in a suburb of Beijing.
这儿会有一辆超级公交，
Here you have a megabus,
在公交上层会承载2000人。
on the upper deck carries about 2,000 people.
它会沿着郊区的路上轨道
It travels on rails
行驶，
down a suburban road,
车辆可以在它下面穿行。
and the cars travel underneath it.
它的时速可达每小时约100英里。
And it does speeds of up to about 100 miles an hour.
现在这个就是未来交通方式，
Now this is the way things are going to move,
因为中国有非常具体问题，
because China has a very specific problem,
它有别于欧洲
which is different from Europe
和美国。
and different from the United States:
中国人口众多，但很少空间。
China has huge numbers of people and no space.
所以当
So this is a solution to a situation
中国将会有
where China's going to have
越来越多的城市
many, many, many cities
超过2000万人口时，这会是应对这种情况的解决方案。
over 20 million people.
好吧，那么我会怎样来做结论呢？
Okay, so how would I like to finish?
那么，我们应该以怎样态度
Well, what should our attitude be
来面对这个
towards this world
呈现在我们面前
that we see
飞速发展的
very rapidly developing
世界？
before us?
我认为关于此事，这会有好的方面也会有坏的方面。
I think there will be good things about it and there will be bad things about it.
但首先，我想指出
But I want to argue, above all,
这世界所展现的是一幅积极正面的蓝图。
a big-picture positive for this world.
200年来，
For 200 years,
世界基本上
the world was essentially governed
是被人类的一部分人所管辖。
by a fragment of the human population.
这是以欧洲和北美为代表的。
That's what Europe and North America represented.
新兴国家的崛起
The arrival of countries
像中国和印度
like China and India --
它们占世界人口的百分之三十八
between them 38 percent of the world's population --
和其他国家如印度尼西亚和巴西等等，
and others like Indonesia and Brazil and so on,
他们代表了在过去200年间最重要的人类活动
represent the most important single act
民主化
of democratization
进程。
in the last 200 years.
曾被忽视，
Civilizations and cultures,
没有发言权的文明和文化，
which had been ignored, which had no voice,
人们对此不了解，没听说过的文明和文化，
which were not listened to, which were not known about,
它们将会在这世界上以与众不同地
will have a different sort
声音代言它们自身。
of representation in this world.
作为人道主义者，我们必定要欢迎
As humanists, we must welcome, surely,
这种转型。
this transformation,
我们还得学习
and we will have to learn
这些文明。
about these civilizations.
这儿的大船
This big ship here
是在15世纪早期郑和
was the one sailed in by Zheng He
下西洋时
in the early 15th century
航行的船，
on his great voyages
它穿过中国东海，南海
around the South China Sea, the East China Sea
然后穿行印度洋到达东非。
and across the Indian Ocean to East Africa.
这前面的小船
The little boat in front of it
是80年后，
was the one in which, 80 years later,
克里斯托弗·哥伦布穿行大西洋的船只。
Christopher Columbus crossed the Atlantic.
（笑声）
(Laughter)
或仔细看看
Or, look carefully
这幅
at this silk scroll
ZhuZhou朱周（音译）
made by ZhuZhou
在1368年创作的绢轴国画。
in 1368.
我认为他们在打高尔夫。
I think they're playing golf.
上帝啊，竟然是中国人发明了高尔夫球。
Christ, the Chinese even invented golf.
欢迎来到未来。谢谢。
Welcome to the future. Thank you.